In Myanmar, rebels are attacking targets in the capital – demonstrating how vulnerable the army has become. Those in power are driving more and more supporters to the insurgents.
It was a coordinated attack on the military’s center of power. At least 13 combat drones were reported to have flown over Myanmar’s capital Naypyidaw this week before they were destroyed by the military. Four drones circled above the airport. According to military-affiliated media, there was said to be no damage or casualties. But it is a sensitive attack on the airspace of the heavily guarded capital.
Kyaw Zaw, spokesman for Myanmar’s opposition government, said: “With this attack on their nerve center, we want to make it clear that they no longer have a safe place.”
The military junta is still clinging to power with all its might. But for their boss, General Min Aung Hlaing, the situation is becoming increasingly hopeless. The army is losing control over ever larger parts of the country.
More than three years ago, the military seized power in Myanmar and overthrew the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi under the leadership of General Min Aung Hlaing. The Nobel Peace Prize winner is still in prison, sentenced to life imprisonment.
There is fighting all over the country – including in the north near Nam Hpat Kar.
The junta is sending new blood to the rebels
The majority of the population joined the peaceful resistance in 2021. However, because of the military’s brutality, more and more people have taken up arms to fight against the military in the past three years. These so-called People’s Defense Forces have recently increasingly joined forces with Myanmar’s armed ethnic groups, which have been fighting the military for decades.
A representative of the Karen National Union (KNU) told the ARD Studio Singaporethat they were currently focused on the military’s air bases. The junta’s air strikes are the greatest threat to the opposition and the civilian population. The military has been carrying out increased air strikes on villages, towns and rebel bases for months, in which dozens of civilians are repeatedly killed.
In addition to air force bases, the military’s opponents are also targeting aviation fuel suppliers. Recently, they detonated bombs in Yangon – they were intended to hit employees of military-related companies that import aviation fuel. Before that, a ship that was loading fuel was attacked.
On April 4, the United Nations Human Rights Council passed a resolution calling on all states to stop sending jet fuel and weapons to Myanmar. Russia and China have so far been Myanmar’s closest allies and supply the country with supplies.
Those in power are vulnerable
The drone attacks on the capital show that the military junta is vulnerable and in a desolate state. The opposition, however, is growing, also because of the new compulsory military service. The first 5,000 soldiers are scheduled to begin training after the traditional Burmese New Year in mid-April. According to the controversial law, young men and women between the ages of 18 and 35 can now be forcibly recruited.
Kyaw, 31, tells Channel News Asia how he received the call-up notice in March: “At that moment I realized that I have to leave the country. If I get drafted, I’m lost.” The young recruits are expected to be sent to the front without extensive training. He will either die or have to flee first. Kyaw says: “I’d rather end up as a beggar in a foreign country.”
Escape from mobilization
Myanmar’s military, already hated by the majority of the population, is at its lowest point in popularity. For Miemie Winn Byrd, an Asia-Pacific security expert and former lieutenant colonel in the US armed forces, the forced recruitment for the junta could ultimately turn out to be a mistake. The mood in the army is getting worse and worse. The military junta can sometimes no longer pay its soldiers and sometimes can barely feed them: “At the moment the military has more deaths in fighting on the ground than the rebels. And that’s because the soldiers are exhausted and there are none have more will to fight.”
It’s not just about how many men a side has, but also about their willingness to fight. “Many military personnel have lost their belief that the military exists to protect the population because they have realized that the population has become their main enemy.”
Soldiers are fleeing across the border to India, Bangladesh, Thailand or China. Others try to switch sides and join rebel groups.
A question of money
33-year-old Ah Saw opened a travel agency before the military coup. First came Covid, then the coup, business was bad. Since the military announced the forced recruitment in February, booking requests for Thailand and Malaysia have increased. “Actually, people only want the one-way route. But to have a better chance of getting a visa, they reserve a return trip,” she reports. “I try everything to help them.”
Hundreds of desperate young people are queuing in front of embassies to receive visas. But only the wealthier can afford to flee abroad. For Miemie Winn Byrd, the country is now not only facing a new “brain drain”, i.e. an exodus of qualified young people, but also a new form of division.
While the military coup of 2021 united formerly feuding ethnic and religious groups, money is now dividing society. “Because of corruption, especially those who can pay the bribes can avoid the draft. But the poor have no means to escape. If you try to escape, it costs money for the bus, plane or taxi. “
The principle of surprise
New regulations are constantly making it more difficult to obtain a travel permit – because you also need one to travel within the country. Added to this is the fear of even going out on the streets. There is always a risk of being arrested and drafted by the military.
But you’re not safe at home either, says 23-year-old Khun San der ARD. “We’re afraid of them standing at our door and knocking. And when they come, they come between midnight and two in the morning. When I think about it, I can’t sleep anymore.”
Like many others, Khun San wants to move abroad as quickly as possible. If the call-up order comes before the visa, it is already clear to him that he will then prefer to side with the rebels.
Jennifer Johnston, ARD Singapore, tagesschau, April 5, 2024 2:19 p.m