In Myanmar, rebel groups have taken control of large parts of the border region with China. It is the worst setback for the military junta since it came to power in February 2021.
More than two and a half years after the coup, the military in Myanmar appears weakened. The former general and acting president of Myanmar’s military government, Myint Swe, warned of the country’s collapse.
In Shan State province, an alliance of three rebel groups, the Brotherhood Alliance, has taken control of parts of the border region with China. Shan State is located in northeastern Myanmar and covers almost a quarter of the country’s total area.
“Situation very threatening for military regimes”
The armed ethnic groups are calling their coordinated attack “Operation 1027” as they launched their attack on October 27. Since then, the rebels have captured more than 100 military posts, police stations and border crossings. Government, administrative and security forces are no longer on site. A military spokesman also confirms this. The fighting has now spread to other regions in the country.
According to experts, it is the most critical moment for the military since it seized power in February 2021. “The current situation is very threatening for the military regime in Myanmar. It is probably facing its biggest test in many decades,” said Richard Horsey of the International Crisis Group ARD-Interview. The military responded with air strikes and artillery fire, but so far it has not been able to retake the area.
Thousands on the run
Thousands of civilians have fled the region because of the fighting. The UN Emergency Relief Office (OCHA) said around 200,000 people had already been forced to flee. 28-year-old Phyo Phyo lives in Laukkaing on the border with China. She told the newspaper that she was trying to escape from the fighting between rebels and the military ARD on the phone. But the prices for a moped or gasoline had risen so much that she could no longer afford it.
Phyo Phyo supports the rebels in the fight against the military. “If we are united, we can win, I am sure. I want a safe country where human rights are respected and we have peace without oppression and corruption.”
Fight in other provinces too
The fighting has now spread from Shan State to the Sagaing region further northwest. There is also fighting in Rakhine State on the border with Bangladesh and in Chin State on the border with India.
“The success of the armed ethnic groups has signaled to other opponents of the military regime that now is the right time to attack, in this historic moment of weakness,” analyzes crisis expert Horsey. The involvement of one of the largest armed rebel groups in Rakhine State is notable because it would have broken a year-long ceasefire with the military.
The goal is to overthrow military government
What is also special is that the well-armed rebels in Shan State have explicitly placed their operation in a larger context for the first time. They no longer only talk about their own territorial interests, which they have been pursuing for decades, but that their primary goal is the overthrow of the military government and a return to democracy.
They are officially pursuing the same goal as the government of national unity, the NUG, which established itself as a parallel government shortly after the coup and which includes, among other things, members of the former democratically elected government.
The spokesman of the NUG, U Kyaw Zaw, therefore welcomes the ARD the rebel operation in the north of the country and praised the good cooperation. The goal of the Government of National Unity is a new federal, democratic federal state in which all ethnic minorities are taken into account.
The role of China
The three Brotherhood Alliance rebel groups now control several border crossings with China. A large part of the important trade with the influential neighbor runs through them. China is not only Myanmar’s largest trading partner, but also one of the military regime’s few allies. A billion-dollar project is planned in the border region; a railway line is to be built here as part of China’s New Silk Road. There are also pipelines running through the area that supply China with oil and gas.
But there is tension between the military and the Chinese government on one point. There are many large centers in the border region where online fraud is carried out on an industrial scale. The military has so far done little against these centers because they sometimes make good money themselves or have little power in the area.
The masterminds behind the fraud centers are often Chinese gangs who use sophisticated fraud schemes to take money out of the pockets of Chinese citizens and people around the world. In the centers, many Chinese nationals are also forced to cheat under slave-like conditions.
Closing these fraud factories, some of which employ tens of thousands of people, is now a top priority in China. “If the price of shutting down some of these fraud centers is a few weeks or months of instability at their border, then that’s a price Beijing is willing to pay,” Horsey said. It is a promise the rebels made to China.
Take fighters from the opposing government District capital a
Myanmar is a multi-ethnic state, there are dozens of ethnic minorities. Some have been fighting the army for decades and demanding autonomy. Since the coup, urban Burmese have also joined the fight against the military.
Many fled to areas controlled by ethnic insurgents to receive weapons training from experienced fighters. They form the armed wing of the counter-government NUG. The so-called People’s Defense Forces (PDF) want an end to military rule and a return to democracy, which was just flourishing when the military overthrew the elected government led by Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi. The 78-year-old is still in prison today.
The NUG and its armed wing welcome the success of the Brotherhood Alliance and speak of a new dynamic in their struggle. Although not as well-armed or experienced as the Shan insurgents, they have launched attacks of their own in nearby areas to exploit the military’s apparent weakness. For the first time, they captured a district capital from government troops.
It is currently unclear how far the offensive will spread and whether the rebels will be able to hold the areas in the long term. For the moment, the gains in territory are at least a glimmer of hope for a better future for opponents of the regime.