Moscow’s influence in the Belarus conflict: out of the crisis only with Putin?

The Eastern European EU members in particular fear Russia’s influence in Belarus – and are sharply critical of Merkel’s and Macron’s attempts to seek dialogue. But it won’t work without Putin.

The question of whether a phone call with Lukashenko is allowed during the crisis divides Europeans. The Polish government finds it completely wrong that Angela Merkel picked up the phone twice. Warsaw rejects contacts with the Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko, claiming that this will upgrade him. At the beginning of the week, French President Emmanuel Macron received similar criticism as Merkel when it became known that he had spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin on the phone.

“Putin is steering the crisis together with Mr. Lukashenko,” said Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis outraged and became even clearer: Putin is not the solution to the crisis, but part of the problem. At the meeting in Brussels, Landsbergis vehemently warned his colleagues not to underestimate the danger of a Russian invasion to the west: “We know that Russian special forces are in Belarus, only a few kilometers from the border with Lithuania.”

Troop movements on Russia’s western border

Not only the Eastern European EU members fear that Putin will be involved in the refugee crisis in Belarus. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also reports worrying military actions. Putin has moved an unusually large number of troops to his western border. “We are watching Russia’s rearmament and seeing concentrations of Russian forces near the Ukrainian border,” Stoltenberg reported earlier this week. He called for a clear message to Russia to ease tensions and stop the escalation.

The military marches near Ukraine, the detonation on the border between Belarus and the European Union, plus controversial missile tests in space – is there a connection? What is certain is that Putin’s maneuver is causing unrest in Western security circles.

“A series of Russian demonstrations of power”

“We are witnessing a series of Russian demonstrations of force intended to challenge the West and to test the political unity of the West,” stated security expert Johannes Varwick. The political scientist at Halle University sees Moscow’s aggressive foreign policy primarily as an attempt to divert attention from domestic political problems.

However, he recommends that the heads of government of the EU also look at the crisis situation on the border between East and West from a Moscow perspective. “Foreign policy always means seeing through the eyes of others,” said Varwick. And from Moscow’s point of view, Russian security interests would be threatened if states like Ukraine were clearly part of the western camp. This also applies to Belarus: “It would be a nightmare for Moscow if a regime change were to take place in Belarus,” which would challenge the previous close alliance.

The West must find a way out of the escalation spiral. And telephoning with dictators is clearly one of them, according to security expert Varwick. He considers Merkel’s phone calls with Lukashenko to be the right step in the Belarus crisis.

Ukraine is a test case for the West

But Ukraine could become a test case for the West even more. Kiev is pushing to become a member of NATO. The Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitri Kuleba only visited Secretary General Stoltenberg again at the beginning of the week. Kuleba spoke of Putin’s hybrid war, for him not only the Russian troop marches, but also the gas policy and the instrumentalization of migrants.

The Ukrainian campaign to join the Western alliance has so far fallen on deaf ears in Brussels. “NATO will not go to war for the security of Ukraine, and it is reasonable to do so,” said security expert Varwick. At the same time, he sees Ukraine as an important building block in the European security architecture, crucial for the stability of the continent. That is why the West should not leave Ukraine out in the rain.

According to Varwick, this can only succeed if the West makes a fresh attempt to get into talks with Moscow again. Even if difficult compromises are necessary, for example on the Crimean question. “We have to use a realpolitical compass – without betraying Ukraine – to seek a balance of interests with Moscow.” According to Varwick, it could be a painful diplomatic process, “but better than a permanent crisis”.