Military expert fears “dam burst” in Ukraine war

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Ukraine’s defense capability depends heavily on Western arms supplies. The USA has now decided on a comprehensive package – can Russia’s advance be stopped?

Kiev/Moscow – Russia has made a fatal advance in the Ukraine war. In the city of Ocheretyne, ruler Vladimir Putin’s troops are said to have taken advantage of a brigade change to make a breakthrough, the magazine reported Forbes. Ukraine’s 47th Brigade, which is a particularly well-equipped and trained unit in heavy combat, even blames its own troops for Russia’s success. Is there now a risk of a major Russian advance beyond Ukraine’s second line of defense?

The location of the now captured city could be dangerous for the Russian army, Austrian officer and military expert Markus Reisner told the broadcaster ntv with. Because Ocheretyne is slightly elevated, which makes the troops in the largely flat region in the east of Ukraine an easy target. However, Ukraine lacks urgently needed supplies of ammunition and weapons to strike back.

Russians break through – military expert fears “dam burst” in the Ukraine war

Russia appears to be deliberately wearing down Ukraine’s resources with a variety of initiatives. Even the 47th Brigade, which is equipped with the most modern Western weapons, is “now battered and worn out,” said Reisner. Due to a lack of artillery, the army itself only has the option of using drones. This means an attack of up to five kilometers is possible, “but they lack the artillery equipment to hit the Russians, especially in depth,” said Reisner ntv. He fears that there could be a “moment of dam bursting”.

Ukraine is waiting for arms deliveries from the USA. But will the support turn the tide in the Ukraine war? Russia downplays the aid. © ITAR-TASS/ZUMA Wire/Bestimage/IMAGO (montage)

However, the decided deliveries from the USA could save the situation at the front. President Joe Biden recently defeated the Republican majority’s blockade in the Senate. Speaking at the White House on April 24, Biden said about $1 billion worth of military equipment would be delivered “in the next few hours.” The package includes anti-aircraft equipment, artillery, missile systems and armored vehicles.

Fear of arms delivery? Russians are putting pressure on the front for US aid

On the front, people can hardly wait for deliveries from the USA, said Reisner. The announced surface-to-surface missiles of the ATACMS type, with a range of 300 kilometers, would make an attack on “command posts and logistics points” possible. In order to arm itself against the announced deliveries, Russia would use the remaining time to gain space. “The Russians will quickly try to saturate the conquered area with forces and thus create the conditions so that they are as well positioned as possible for the planned summer offensive in June,” said Reisner.

After the US aid package was approved, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the US with a video on X (formerly Twitter). The agreed package is of “crucial importance,” said Zelensky. “I thank all Americans who work in defense contractors and every country that produces weapons,” the president wrote in the post. The arms deliveries would not only help Ukraine, but would also strengthen “all our partners and the whole world” against Russian aggression.

“Serious danger” – lack of support is damaging Ukraine

The announced delivery from the USA is only a small part of the passed law on aid to Ukraine. In total, arms deliveries are expected to amount to 61 billion US dollars (around 57 billion euros). But the long delivery pause appears to have left deep wounds in Ukraine’s defense capability. “We are seeing the consequences of this lack of support, especially from the USA, particularly clearly these days,” said Reisner ntv. “And they are becoming a serious threat to the Ukrainian defense line.”

Only the voices from the Kremlin itself are more radical. Like the news agency Reuters reported that Russia had announced that the US supplies would not change the outcome of the Ukraine war. Rather, the support would create further problems for the country. “The US is directly involved in this conflict. “They are pursuing the path of increasing the range of the weapon systems they supply,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. “This will not fundamentally change the outcome of the special military operation. We will achieve our goal. But this will cause more problems for Ukraine itself.” (nhi)

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