Milan-Sanremo – Wout van Aert, Tadej Pogacar… or neither: who is the big favorite for the 2022 Primavera edition?

There are them and the others. Since the start of the season, Tadej Pogacar and Wout van Aert have given, in different measures and registers, the impression of being above the lot. During Tirreno-Adriatico, the Slovenian made Mikel Landa and Jonas Vingegaard look like average climbers. During Paris-Nice, the Belgian began by chaining four podiums, including a victorious time, then he towed Primoz Roglic to the coronation during the last stage, on the reliefs of the Nice country.

Before that, Pogacar had dominated the UAE Tour and above all won the Strade Bianche alone. Van Aert, meanwhile, won the Het Nieuwsblad without more company, as soon as he returned to the asphalt. Their respective paths will finally cross in 2022, on Saturday, at Milan-Sanremo. A Primavera which is arguably the Monument with the longest list of potential winners. But if there was only one man to beat, would it be “WVA” or “Pogi”?

Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma)

• Why does he look like the big favorite

Because he has already won Milan-Sanremo and because no scenario excludes him from the myriad of contenders. During his coronation, in 2020, Van Aert had been put on the ropes by the attack in the Poggio d’Alaphilippe. But he had fallen just a few meters behind the best puncher in the world and had taken him back on the descent before sprinting ahead of him.

This is enough to give him confidence in his ability to manage money time, in the classic format of a last quarter of an hour under high tension. If the race settles down sooner, he will probably wince less than other “big thighs” and if it’s dead calm, we will have to be very reckless to condemn the chances of victory of the last man to have raised his arms on the Champs-Elysees.

• Why it doesn’t have to be

Because being likely to win Milan-Sanremo in X ways is often a passport to a place of honour. Ask Peter Sagan what he thinks about it, he who finished seven times in the “Top 4” of the Classicissima without ever conquering it. Especially since, unlike Pogacar, whose domination at the start of the exercise has something discouraging for his opponents, Van Aert has shown some flaws.

In the sprint, the Belgian champion was jostled during the sun race. He was no match for Fabio Jakobsen, on the flat, or against Mads Pedersen and Bryan Coquard, uphill. His immense versatility is a strength much more than a weakness, but it does not exempt him from the risk of being a player in almost all the major events of the season, without managing to materialize it in the charts.

• The ideal scenario for him

A pace high enough to tire pure sprinters but not so frantic as to put it to use from the Capi. Van Aert would no doubt sign for it. As for the outcome, arriving in the company of two or three runners slower than him would be relatively comfortable, even if a sprint after 300 terminals is apart. A solitary triumph is not an absurd hypothesis.

Tadej Pogacar (UAE Emirates)

• Why does he look like the big favorite

Because one comes to wonder in which race he is not a favourite, with the exception of the Flandrian classics. Tadej Pogacar is 23 years old and he has already won the Tour de France twice and two Monuments, which is more the last two in which he started (Liège-Bastogne-Liège and the Tour of Lombardy in 2021). His canonical start to the season confirms his status as the essential protagonist for Saturday.

His past on the test, too. Pogacar only took part in Milan-Sanremo once, in 2020, when he was “only” a great hope of the peloton, on the way to proving that he was much more than a specialist in stage races. He had taken 12th place, in the group failing two seconds behind Van Aert. The Slovenian prodigy has grown since then and to do better than two years ago would mean close to victory. At least.

• Why it doesn’t have to be

Because Milan-Sanremo remains the monument of sprinters. Pogacar certainly almost outweighed the pawn at the photo-finish in Van Aert, for the money, last summer during the Tokyo Olympics. But if forty riders present themselves for the win on the Via Roma, it will be necessary to be daring to bet on “Pogi” and not on Caleb Ewan or another Alexander Kristoff.

Pogacar gives the impression of running for fun. A futile breakaway on Tirreno-Adriatico recently illustrated this. The Primavera suits those who know how to count their pedal strokes, hide, or not, according to the wind and the racing cars still present in the final. Many other great races are played on the strength of the hock and seem to stick more to his temperament.

• The ideal scenario for him

The unknown Van der Poel

The star of the Alpecin-Fenix ​​team, who has yet to race in 2022 due to back pain, has brought his recovery forward by a few days. “MVDP was added to MSR’s roster because of the many sick riders on the team and because his rehabilitation is going well. However, he will participate without expectation. The 293 km race was preferred to a training session on Saturday,” communicated his training. We can reasonably think that he will lack land, but Van der Poel has never done less than 13th in eight participations in Monuments. He is the X factor par excellence.

The Roglic enigma

The former winners Michal Kwiatkowski (2017), Arnaud Démare (2016) and Alexander Kristoff (2014) are more like outsiders, as well as a host of sprinters (Pedersen, Philipsen, Jakobsen, Nizzolo, Matthews, Bouhanni, Coquard, Sagan etc.). Soren Kragh Andersen – in the shot 100 meters from the finish last year -, Tom Pidcock and Matej Mohoric will have to be offensive.