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Every time the number of refugees in Germany increases, the so-called pull factors are discussed in politics. Migration experts consider this theory to be outdated for a long time.
The Russian war of aggression in Ukraine, plus the still tense situations in Syria and Afghanistan: the number of refugees in Germany is significantly higher than in previous years. The cities and municipalities were already sounding the alarm and demanding more support from the federal government for accommodation. Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser spoke of a “humanitarian show of strength”.
CDU leader Friedrich Merz also intervened in the debate, warning against “false incentives” given the social benefits for refugees in Germany. Merz used the so-called pull factors as justification for this. People from many countries would be attracted by the financial resources they would get in Germany. The CDU had already mentioned the pull factor in its election program before the 2020 federal election.
The theory dates back to the 1960s
The theory of push and pull factors goes back to the American sociologist Everett Lee in the 1960s. He attempted to establish universal factors for migration movements. Lee differentiated between two categories: push factors – from the English word to push – and pull factors – from the English word to pull (to pull).
Push factors describe the negative circumstances in the country of origin that “push” people away from their countries. These included, for example, wars, environmental disasters and poverty. Pull factors, in turn, are positive circumstances in the target country that “attract” people, such as a high standard of living or the need for workers.
Lee’s theory is brought up again and again when it comes to the topic of migration – especially when numbers are increasing. But also in connection with sea rescue in the Mediterranean, there are repeated accusations that the rescue itself creates incentives to escape.
“It’s a vague idea, nothing more”
In migration research, however, Lee’s theory has long been considered outdated. “I would say it’s a very vague idea, nothing more,” says Frank Kalter, director of the German Center for Integration and Migration Research (DeZIM). For a long time the topic of migration was thought of in very economic terms. There are numerous other factors that can be decisive for migration. However, in the public debate, these factors are “significantly underestimated, while the economic factors are significantly overestimated.”
In addition, it is not possible “to deduce any structural factors as the causes of flight without knowing the decision-making behavior of the individuals,” says Kalter. “The reality is much more complex than this model suggests.” If people chose their destination countries solely for economic reasons, then “the whole world would have to be in motion.” But she isn’t. “And that’s because actors simply include many other aspects in their equation.”
Researchers are pursuing other approaches
For Tobias Heidland, head of the International Development Research Center at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), the idea of push and pull factors also falls short. The theory is considered “rather outdated” in migration research. “The main reason for this is that it is a relatively rigid construct,” says Heidland.
If you take it literally, then there can be factors that push someone and there are factors that pull someone. In this model, people themselves actually have no say at all, but are completely subject to these external factors.
Nowadays, migration research is systematically thinking about two things, says Heidland. “First: Who has the desire to migrate?” This could happen due to all sorts of factors. In the second step, the question would then remain: Who among the people who want to go to another country actually has the means to do so, for example financially? “This allows us to understand much more precisely why people migrate in certain contexts and, in particular, why do so many people not migrate?” says Heidland.
Social contacts and language are more important
Of course, factors such as income and standard of living also play a role in the choice of destination country, says Heidland. “Am I being treated badly and have no chance of earning a living or is it a country that offers me certain opportunities? This is particularly relevant if you don’t expect to be able to return to your country of origin quickly.”
However, it is often not possible for people to make economic calculations when choosing a destination country, “because the triggers for fleeing usually occur completely unforeseen,” says Kalter. Social networks and language played a “much larger role” in the decision to flee. “The connection to relatives and friends is the absolutely dominant motive.”
The numbers also show this: most Ukrainians, for example, fled to Poland. Most Syrian refugees, however, are registered in Turkey. “This is always completely underestimated from our perspective: that it is usually the immediate neighboring countries that take in the most refugees in a crisis,” says Kalter. “And that’s because there are already existing relationships and geographical and cultural proximity.”
“Welcome policy” not a sustainable factor
A study that Heidland conducted together with his IfW colleague Jasper Tjaden also shows how little a single factor, such as the 2015 “welcome policy” under the leadership of former Chancellor Angela Merkel, has a lasting impact on migration. There was a large movement of refugees in the short term due to the war in Syria, says Heidland.
But we find no long-term increase in the desire of people in other countries to go to Germany. This means that the narrative that Merkel’s policies back then ensured that more people wanted to come to Germany permanently cannot be supported by the data.
Especially since many of the people who fled to Europe at the time had already set off before Merkel’s decision not to close the borders, says Heidland. Therefore, for them, the announcement could not have played any role in their escape.
Labor migration in the EU
Heidland also points out that the majority of the migration that is taking place is not refugee migration at all – with the exception of years like 2015 or now 2022. “Normally, 90 percent or more of migration is primarily labor and educational migration most of them within the EU.” This is often not reflected in the public discussion by the media and politicians.
Every year more than a million people come to Germany and more than a million people leave Germany. “Net migration is normally below 500,000,” says Heidland. Without the annual immigration from abroad, Germany would shrink because of the low birth rate since the 1970s.
For migrant workers, language is also one of the most important factors when choosing a destination country, says Heidland. “Success on the job market obviously depends on this.” That is why the migration flows between Germany and Switzerland, Denmark and Poland are significantly higher than between, for example, the Balkan states and Germany. “This is where factors such as geographical proximity, language and similarly functioning labor markets become apparent.”