fact finder
Status: 12.10.2022 5:20 p.m
Every time the number of refugees in Germany increases, the so-called pull factors are discussed in politics. Migration experts have long considered this theory to be outdated.
The Russian war of aggression in Ukraine, plus the still tense situations in Syria and Afghanistan: the number of refugees in Germany is significantly higher than in previous years. The cities and municipalities have already sounded the alarm and are demanding more support from the federal government for accommodation. Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser spoke of a “humanitarian tour de force”.
CDU leader Friedrich Merz also got involved in the debate, warning of “wrong incentives” in view of the social benefits for refugees in Germany. Merz used the so-called pull factors as a reason for this. People from many countries would be attracted by the financial resources they would get in Germany. Even before the 2020 federal election, the CDU had already mentioned the pull factor in the election program.
The theory dates back to the 1960s
The theory of push and pull factors goes back to the US sociologist Everett Lee in the 1960s. He tried to set up universal factors for migration movements. Lee distinguished two categories: push factors – from the English word to push – and pull factors – from the English word to pull (pull).
Push factors describe the negative circumstances in the country of origin that “push” people away from their countries. This included, for example, wars, environmental disasters or poverty. Pull factors, on the other hand, are positive circumstances in the target country that “attract” people, such as a high standard of living or a need for workers.
Lee’s theory is brought up again and again when it comes to the topic of migration – especially when the numbers are increasing. But also in connection with sea rescue in the Mediterranean, there is always the accusation that the rescue itself creates incentives to flee.
“It’s a vague idea, nothing more”
In migration research, on the other hand, Lee’s theory has long been considered outdated. “I would say it’s a very vague idea, nothing more,” says Frank Kalter, director of the German Center for Integration and Migration Research (DeZIM). For a long time, the topic of migration was thought of in a very economical way. There are numerous other factors that can be decisive for migration. In the public debate, however, these factors are “significantly underestimated, while the economic factors are significantly overestimated”.
In addition, it is not possible “to derive any structural factors as reasons for flight without knowing the decision-making behavior of individuals,” says Kalter. “The reality is much more complex than this model suggests.” If people chose their destination countries for economic reasons alone, then “the whole world would have to be on the move”. But she is not. “And that’s because actors just throw so many other things into their equation.”
Researchers are pursuing other approaches
For Tobias Heidland, Head of the International Development Research Center at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), the idea of push and pull factors does not go far enough. The theory is considered “rather outdated” in migration research. “The main reason for this is that it’s a relatively rigid construct,” says Heidland.
If you take that literally, there can be factors that push someone and there are factors that pull someone. In this model, people themselves actually have no say at all, but are completely subject to these external factors.
In migration research, two things are therefore being systematically considered these days, says Heidland. “First: Who has the desire to migrate?” This could happen due to all sorts of factors. In the second step, the question then remains: Which of the people who want to go to another country actually has the opportunity to do so, for example financially? “This allows us to understand much more precisely why people migrate in certain contexts and, in particular, why do so many people not migrate?” says Heidland.
Social contacts and language more important
Of course, factors such as income and standard of living also play a role in the choice of destination country, says Heidland. “Am I being treated badly there and have no chance of earning a living or is it a country that offers me certain opportunities? This is particularly relevant if you don’t expect to be able to return to your country of origin quickly.”
However, it is often not possible for people to make economic calculations when choosing a destination country, “because the triggers for fleeing are usually completely unforeseen,” says Kalter. Social networks or language played a “much bigger role” in the decision to flee. “The connection to relatives and friends is the absolutely dominant motive.”
This is also shown by the numbers: Most Ukrainians, for example, fled to Poland. Most Syrian refugees, on the other hand, are registered in Turkey. “That’s something that’s always completely underestimated from our perspective: that it’s usually the immediate neighboring countries that take in the most refugees in a crisis,” says Kalter. “And that’s because there are already existing relationships and a geographical and cultural proximity.”
“Welcome policy” not a sustainable factor
A study that Heidland created together with his IfW colleague Jasper Tjaden also shows how little a single factor, such as the “welcome policy” in 2015 under the leadership of former Chancellor Angela Merkel, has a lasting influence on migration. In the short term, there was a large number of refugees due to the war in Syria, says Heidland.
But we don’t find any long-term increase in the desire of people in other countries to go to Germany. This means that the narrative that Merkel’s policy at the time ensured that more people now wanted to come to Germany permanently cannot be substantiated in the data.
Especially since many of the people who fled to Europe at the time had already set out before Merkel decided not to close the borders, says Heidland. Therefore, the announcement could not have played any role in their escape.
Labor migration within the EU
Heidland also points out that the majority of the migration that takes place is not refugee migration at all – with the exception of years like 2015 or now 2022. “Normally, 90 percent or more of the migration is primarily work and education migration, that is most of them within the EU.” This is often not reflected in public discussions by the media and politicians.
Every year more than a million people would come to Germany and also more than a million people would leave Germany. “Net migration is normally less than 500,000,” says Heidland. Without the annual immigration from abroad, Germany would have been shrinking because of the low birth rate since the 1970s.
For migrant workers, too, language is one of the most important factors in choosing a destination country, says Heidland. “Of course, success on the job market depends on that.” That is why the migration flows between Germany and Switzerland, Denmark and Poland are also significantly higher than between the Balkan countries and Germany, for example. “These are factors such as physical proximity, language, and similarly functioning labor markets.”