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Before the midterms in the USA, extreme circles of Republicans called for people to infiltrate the electoral system in order to influence the result. Experts see this as a test run for the presidential election.
The Republicans were unable to achieve the successes they had hoped for in the US midterms. Although they were able to gain a narrow majority in the House of Representatives, they failed to do so in the Senate. Many of the candidates supported by former President Donald Trump fell short of expectations – and thus also supported his conspiracy theories surrounding the 2020 US election.
“Some say it was a good day for democracy. And it was also a good day for democracy,” says Huberta von Voss, Executive Director of the Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD) Germany. “The very extreme candidates lost in many cases – but not all of them. You always have to keep that in mind.” The USA is therefore far from out of the woods.
Disinformation from domestic actors
In the midterms, too, there were various actors who tried to influence the elections – both abroad and at home, says Katja Muñoz, research associate at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). “Of course, foreign actors still operate in the background. But a large part of the disinformation comes from the USA itself. The aim is usually to weaken trust in the institutions and ultimately destabilize democracy.”
The ISD has examined the domestic actors of disinformation more closely this year, says von Voss. “We particularly looked at the existing extremist circles in the USA – i.e. the conspiracy ideological circles and the entire organizations that have emerged to agitate against unpleasant election results.” These circles are primarily seen as supporters of former President Trump and his candidates, who belong to the extreme fringe of the Republicans.
The actors acted very strategically, especially in social networks. “They have built a very good infrastructure for this,” says von Voss. “And this infrastructure has worked very well. Especially in the swing states, the contested states. But it certainly hasn’t led to the successes that the relevant circles would have expected.”
intimidation to “Drop Boxes”
According to analyzes by the ISD, one of the tactics was to observe people as they submitted their voting documents. In the USA, some states have the option of throwing voting documents into so-called ballot drop boxes – a type of mailbox that is set up in a public place. In most states, voting documents can also be thrown in for other people who, for example, are no longer mobile.
“An awful lot of election disinformation was built around these images of someone putting several envelopes into a drop box,” says von Voss. “The tenor was: Here you can see again how so many votes were cast illegally. But it’s not illegal, you have to say that again and again.” Nevertheless, there have been many calls to set up vigilante groups around the drop boxes – in shifts.
“You have to imagine that if you belong to a minority in the USA, against which there is a lot of everyday violence,” says von Voss. “What it feels like when you drive up to a drop box in your car and then there are several people sitting there, staring at you, taking photos and filming you, even though you actually just want to cast your vote there. This is clearly an intimidation tactic .”
There were no new narratives in the conspiracy stories in the midterms compared to the 2020 presidential election, says Muñoz from the DGAP: “It made sense to simply reissue the whole thing. The narratives already existed. As a further spin on the allegedly stolen election In 2020, these militias appeared and, among other things, guarded the drop boxes.”
“Risk to electoral integrity”
There have also been calls to be recruited as election workers, says von Voss from ISD Germany. “If you consider that those who are counting votes are themselves conspiracy ideologues, then that is a risk to the integrity of the elections.” The supporters of the conspiracy ideology circles were also called upon to try to be appointed as election observers or as election challengers.
“There was also a strategy of challenging the election officials with false allegations,” says von Voss. Because they have to meet certain criteria, for example they must not have a criminal record. “And then ten letters come in saying, for example, that the returning officer is a pedophile. And then a whole cascade of checks has to start. This is extremely disruptive to the election process, because you can’t just brush these allegations aside.”
The examples would show that the target of disinformation not only affects political opponents, but also the electoral process itself. “This shows how hostile these groups are to democracy,” says von Voss. “Elections are an important institution, a feature of a democracy, and this is being undermined in a very deliberate, highly coordinated manner using a range of interlocking tactics.” However, there are a number of security mechanisms in the USA that would have prevented this attempted infiltration of the electoral system from having widespread success.
Fear for democracy
Von Voss also sees a possible reason why the conspiracy stories in the midterms apparently did not play a decisive role in the election is that the topic of disinformation has become more in the public eye due to the events of recent years in the USA. “Polls have shown that many people in the United States view disinformation as a major threat to democracy. And that may have deterred more conservative voters from voting for conspiracy ideologues. Education efforts are beginning to take effect, but the threats to democracy remain complex.”
Muñoz from the DGAP sees generational change as the reason for the Democratic Party’s success. Younger people – including everyone up to the age of 44 – are significantly more progressive in the USA. “Overall, younger people have a great interest in abortion rights, in democracy and are much more liberal than older people. And that’s why they decided to vote democratically. And that’s the only reason why there isn’t a red tsunami came as everyone predicted.”
According to Muñoz, the fact that Trump’s Twitter account was blocked could also have played an important role. “The grand narrative of the stolen election was initiated and built up heavily by influencers from the conspiracy ideology scene. Trump, with his enormous reach, was then able to spread these stories.” However, with his own platform “Truth Social”, which he launched after his Twitter account was blocked, he only achieves a fraction.
“The threat situation remains”
However, Jiore Craig, head of the elections and digital integrity department at ISD, does not see the results of the midterms as a reason for the all-clear. “The election conspiracies we are hearing about today were enabled in the past and continue to be today by conspiracies rooted in hate, racism, anti-Semitism, sexism and xenophobia,” Craig said.
“The threat level to communities and populations at the center of these far-reaching conspiracies remains feverish regardless of the election outcome – particularly as long as political actors continue to base their core message to voters on disinformation narratives rooted in hate.” The result of this reality was shown by the attack shortly before the midterms on US politician Nancy Pelosi’s husband, Paul Pelosi, and the mass shooting in an LGBTIQ club in the US state of Colorado just a few days after the election.
Von Voss assumes that the failure will make the spreaders of disinformation work even harder – especially with a view to the presidential election in 2024: “You almost have the feeling that they have thought about it for the midterms: We’ll try it now “Just try everything out and see how well it works. It almost seemed like a test run for what’s to come.”