The state of emergency seems to be becoming the new normal when voting in the USA: Americans do not vote in person on Super Tuesday, election day, but send their ballots by post or throw them in the ballot box early. This is common practice in other countries, but in the United States, until the Covid pandemic, it was a minority of voters who used it. When many states eased regulations because of the epidemic, more than two-thirds of Americans used postal voting.
Well, in these midterm elections, the trend towards early voting seems to be continuing. That’s been possible for a week, and as of Monday, 7.5 million Americans have already exercised their voting rights in the 46 states where they have the opportunity to do so. The values of the midterm elections are not directly comparable with those of the 2020 presidential election. Because of the Covid pandemic, the proportion of postal voters rose to almost 70 percent at the time; four years earlier it had been significantly less at 40 percent.
Comparisons with the last midterm elections in 2018 are impressive: In North Carolina, for example, more than twice as many voters requested their documents for postal voting this year, in Florida the proportion of postal voters has risen by 50 percent to date, and in Georgia the Number of early votes almost doubled.
Handing out drinks outside polling stations is now banned in Georgia
The development in Georgia is particularly noteworthy. There, the Republican majority in parliament tightened the electoral law. Among other things, you have increased the requirements for the ID cards that entitle you to vote. However, they have also forbidden the distribution of drinks or food when voters are waiting in line in front of the polling stations. Such restrictions were expected to lower turnout, particularly among Democrats. So far, however, there are many indications that the Democrats in Georgia will still be able to mobilize their supporters.
However, it is not clear who is benefiting from the trend. In Florida, for example, the Democrats have so far had a clear advantage when it comes to postal votes. But they were again in 2018, and this time they narrowed the gap a bit. It is known that the Democratic electorate uses postal voting more frequently than that of Republicans, twice as often in 2020, for example – no wonder after Donald Trump demonized postal voting as prone to fraud. Conspiracy theories are circulating among his followers, according to which the Democrats could allegedly manipulate the postal votes more easily. In the long term, however, Trump’s electorate should also discover the convenience of early voting; in those states for which data are available, their use is also increasing among Republicans.
It is already clear that a high turnout is to be expected. In midterm elections, it is usually significantly lower than in the year of presidential elections. This time, however, several topics are electrifying the election campaign. The Democrats, for example, are reaching more women because the conservative Supreme Court abolished abortion rights. After the summer vacation, that was a dominant issue and gave Democrats a boost in polls.
But now inflation, particularly the price of petrol, and economic concerns are dominating the headlines again. According to the latest polls, the Republicans have benefited from this: They should almost certainly win the majority in the House of Representatives. And in several Senate races where Democrats were considered favorites, Republicans are catching up in the polls.
It is already becoming apparent that with the high turnout and the many postal votes on election day November 8th, chaos is to be expected: the authorities need more time to count them than for the ballot papers handed in personally. Some states, such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, have even banned the counting of postal votes before the actual election day. This is intended to prevent manipulation, but requires a longer waiting period until the result is finally available. In 2020, this resulted in Trump leading the way through Election Day as more Republicans turned out and their votes were counted immediately. However, when the postal votes were added during the course of the election night, Biden caught up rapidly – which made it easier for Trump to spread his lies about election fraud. The counting of several tight races was also delayed for days.
Similar scenarios can be expected this time; in Wisconsin, for example, nearly twice as many voters have already cast their ballots as in the last midterm election. The Trump camp will try to take advantage of the delay this time as well. It has specifically put together candidates for offices that are entrusted with monitoring the elections – and are now supposed to ensure that Trump’s candidates win in any case.