After Iran’s massive retaliatory attack on Israel, the danger of open war between the two countries is greater than ever before. Is there still hope for diplomacy?
It is a night full of fear and terror. Warning sirens are wailing in almost all parts of Israel, and eerie trails of fire are crossing the sky. Videos also show rockets over the sky of Jerusalem. After hours of anxious waiting for the major Iranian attack to begin, people are running, some in panic, into shelters.
Rockets, cruise missiles and swarms of drones fly from western Iran towards Israel, more than 1,000 kilometers away, on Sunday night. Israel’s military counted well over 300 flying objects, 99 percent of which were intercepted by air defense and the allies.
For the first time in its history, the leadership of the Islamic Republic has ordered an attack directly from its own territory on the Jewish arch-enemy. After these unprecedented Iranian retaliatory strikes on Israel, fears of a new major war in the Middle East are growing.
This military strike had been looming for days after Iran’s leadership announced revenge for the killing of high-ranking officers. On April 1, two brigadier generals were killed in a suspected Israeli airstrike on Iran’s embassy compound in the Syrian capital Damascus. Now, with Operation “Sincere Promise,” the much-anticipated Iranian retaliatory strike took place. The military leadership in Tehran spoke of a successful operation, Iran’s UN mission declared the attack over and warned of counterattacks – well aware of the great potential for escalation.
Is Israel now hitting back hard?
How will Israel respond to Iran’s attack now? That depends on whether the political hawks – who demand a tough response – or the doves – who advocate prudence – have the upper hand.
As a result of the Iranian attack, Israel has regained some of the solidarity of its allies. This had shrunk considerably due to the harsh Israeli actions and the many civilian casualties in the Gaza war. However, a military solo effort against Iran could put this new diplomatic capital at risk again.
Expert Eldad Shavit from the Israeli Institute for National Security (INSS) said on Sunday: “US President Biden prefers a coordinated diplomatic response from the G7 leaders against Iran and has made it clear to Prime Minister (Benjamin) Netanyahu that the US is on Israel’s side but are against a counterattack and would certainly not take part in one.”
Netanyahu’s right-wing extremist partners, on whom his political survival depends, are demanding a tough response to the attack. “The defense has been impressive so far – now we need a devastating attack,” wrote Police Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir on X, formerly Twitter. However, there are also more moderate Israelis who see a counterstrike as necessary to restore Israel’s deterrence in the region, which has been weakened since the October 7 terrorist attack.
Long-standing conflict emerges from the shadows
In the past few months since the Gaza War began, the decades-old conflict between Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran has escalated dramatically. The Jewish state finds itself under attack on multiple fronts following attacks by militias allied with Iran. Since the 1979 revolution, the USA and Israel have been considered archenemies of the Islamic Republic. Netanyahu has also described Iran as his “most important enemy” in the past.
“Frankly, we are on the edge of a dangerous abyss,” Middle East expert Maha Yahya from the Carnegie think tank told CNN. “A lot depends on how Israel responds and whether it will carry out a counterstrike, another attack on Iranian territory.” According to their assessment, Iran was aware that a large proportion of the missiles would be intercepted. The attack was just a drop in the bucket “compared to what could really happen if the situation escalates into a full-scale regional war,” said the expert.
Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari has vehemently rejected the idea that Iran’s attack on Israel could have been some kind of planned show with no real intention to cause harm. “I think Iran wanted to achieve results and it failed to do so,” Hagari said on Sunday. Israel has shown military superiority in defense. He spoke of a “very significant strategic success.”
Jordan rushes to Israel’s aid
Some military aid came from the Arab world to ward off Iran’s attack. The forces of US ally Jordan shot down several of the missiles. The country made peace with neighboring Israel 30 years ago. The Iranian attacks were also repelled by US forces in the Middle East, although it is unclear whether troops at US military bases in the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Bahrain, Qatar or Saudi Arabia were involved. The Emirates and Bahrain have normalized relations with Israel, and Saudi Arabia held talks about this before the start of the Gaza war.
Even though some Arab countries are striving for coexistence with Israel, the Gaza war has stopped possible negotiations on this with the Gulf states for the foreseeable future. Israel’s military action in the Gaza Strip after the terrorist attack by the Islamist Hamas on October 7th had recently triggered a lot of international criticism. In countries such as Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon, powerful militias and movements that are part of the “axis of resistance” against Israel continue to operate.
Israel feels its existence is threatened
For years, Israeli politicians have been concerned about threatening tones from the government in Tehran, which denies the Jewish state the right to exist. Only shortly before the Hamas attack six months ago, Iran’s head of state Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reiterated old threats against Israel and described the state as a cancer.
In addition to the threat posed by a massive missile and drone arsenal, Israel also fears Iran’s controversial nuclear program. The US has repeatedly accused Tehran of seeking nuclear weapons. Iran denies the allegations and asserts that its nuclear program is used for purely civilian purposes. A religious legal opinion by Khamenei had also banned weapons of mass destruction as incompatible with Islam.
The majority of Iranians do not want war
Shortly after the attack on Israel, government supporters gathered in the center of the capital Tehran to celebrate the retaliation. “Iran had to react to demonstrate its strength,” said a resident in the metropolis on Sunday. However, a large part of the population views the rocket attacks with concern. Iran’s leadership is more unpopular than it has been for a long time. The younger generation in particular had openly called for the overthrow of the Islamic system of rule during waves of protests in recent years.
Unlike in the Arab world, in Iran no masses have taken part in solidarity demonstrations for the Palestinians since the beginning of the Gaza war. Disillusioned by a lack of future opportunities and a repressive government, many Iranians are unlikely to follow the course of their political and religious leadership. Shortly after the attack, the local currency, the rial, plunged to a record low. “With this war, people’s situation will worsen, everything will become more expensive,” said a 60-year-old woman.