Hundreds of reservists have evaded conscription, and Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is threatening to resign. In a statement to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he said he would have “difficulty continuing as a minister” if judicial reform were to go through in its current form. These are developments that show how deeply divided Israeli society is. If reservists cancel voluntary military exercises, that does not constitute a punishable desertion, but throughout Israel’s history the army has always been the unifying factor in the diverse society and a guarantor of external security. The fact that members of the army, of all people, have now joined the protest shows how dramatic the situation is.
The struggle for democracy has been raging in Israel for weeks. Hundreds of thousands take to the streets every week to take action against the planned judicial reform. According to plans by the right-wing religious government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, parliament should in future be able to overturn decisions of the highest court with a simple majority. In addition, politicians should be given more influence in the appointment of judges. In view of the extremely heated mood, President Isaac Herzog warned of a “fratricidal war” in a televised address to the nation last week and called for arbitration.
The warring states see the cracks in the command structures
Israel is paralyzed by the internal political conflicts. The neighbors notice that too. Middle East expert Daniel Gerlach says: “The Arab states don’t care about judicial reform.” But: “What you see are potential cracks in the command structures and that for the first time the unconditional loyalty of the armed forces is being openly discussed.”
But even if the domestic political situation in the country is tense, he sees no signs of an escalation in the region. “Hamas and Hezbollah are both weak and currently have no interest in a war,” says Gerlach. Israel has developed into a regional superpower in recent years. The neighbors would know what kind of government they were dealing with. They would have to reckon with hard counterattacks and with the fact that the government of Netanyahu could also use such a conflict to distract attention from the domestic political situation. In addition, Hezbollah has lost support in Lebanon – so it would not be doing itself any favors by attacking.
Nevertheless, the voices against Israel, especially in its dealings with the Palestinians and the settlement policy, are getting louder. Just a few days ago, the Secretary General of the Shiite and Iran-sponsored Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, met with the leader of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Hamas met. According to Israeli media reports, these talks were about possible cooperation. Many now fear an outbreak of violence. An example from the past week shows that this is not an unfounded concern. According to the Israeli army, an assassin had reached Israel with the help of Hezbollah from Lebanon – he detonated a bomb, injuring a man before being shot dead by security forces. Is a new war looming in the region soon?
Netanyahu’s plan with Saudi Arabia is also shaky
But it is not only the problems with the hostile neighboring country Lebanon that are putting Netanyahu under foreign policy pressure. When an Iranian-Saudi rapprochement mediated by China became known a few weeks ago, it was a blow to the core of Netanyahu’s foreign policy. The prime minister had sought to include Riyadh in the Abraham Accords – the peace accords with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco – to form an anti-Iran coalition.
Israeli opposition leader Jair Lapid then sharply criticized the prime minister, saying the deal represented a “complete and dangerous failure of Israel’s foreign policy” and a “collapse of the regional defense wall we have built against Iran.” That’s what happens when you’re dealing with legal madness all day instead of doing your job by dealing with Iran and strengthening ties with the US,” Lapid added.
Daniel Gerlach explains the fact that Saudi Arabia has now moved closer to Iran and not to Israel by referring to the renewed violence and the attitude of the Israeli government towards the Palestinians. In order to mediate, representatives of the Israeli and Palestinian sides met in Egypt last Sunday and committed themselves to de-escalation. The goal is a “comprehensive, just and lasting peace,” it said in a joint statement.
The agreement marks a breakthrough – at least on paper. For the time being, agreement was reached in Sharm el-Sheikh. But Hamas and other Palestinian groups have criticized it according to Israeli media reports the Palestinian Authority, which administers parts of the occupied territories, for attending the meeting, which was held under US auspices. For Gerlach, an indication of how hardened the fronts are. Security experts from the Palestinian Authority used to come and go to the Israelis. The fact that they are now doing this on foreign soil and with the mediation of the USA does not bode well, according to Gerlach. “Negotiations like the one in Egypt used to be held with Hamas, but not with the Palestinian Authority.”