Middle East conflict
Erdogan: From a alienated mediator to a sparkler?
Recep Tayyip Erdogan: Netanyahu is no longer an interlocutor for us. photo
© Christoph Soeder/dpa
The Turkish president wanted to act as a mediator in the war between Israel and Hamas. But now he is escalating his rhetoric and breaking off contact with Netanyahu.
Barbarism, war criminals, ethnic cleansing – Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his communications office are not shying away from verbal attacks against Israel these days.
After the attack on Israel that left more than 1,400 dead, Erdogan called the Islamist Hamas “not a terrorist organization” but “a liberation organization.” From Ankara’s point of view, the bogeyman in the war in the Middle East is clear. The Turkish head of state is concerned with much more than expressing sympathy for the currently around 9,500 Palestinian victims in the Gaza Strip.
Approach seems to be history
As part of a normalization process, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was actually planned to visit Turkey at the beginning of November. As a result of the Gaza war, Erdogan has now broken off contact with Netanyahu. “Netanyahu is no longer any kind of interlocutor for us. We have deleted him, we have crossed him out,” Erdogan said, according to a statement from his press office. However, Ankara does not intend to break off diplomatic relations with Israel.
In the past, Erdogan had described Israel as a “terrorist state” due to its Palestinian policy and had repeatedly portrayed himself as a champion of the Palestinian cause. The criticism of Israel from the head of state of a NATO member marks a turning point: it comes after years of laboriously pushing for rapprochement between Israel and Turkey. Ambassadors were only exchanged about a year ago.
In response to Erdogan’s recent declaration that Hamas is not a terrorist organization but a liberation organization, Israel promptly withdrew its diplomats. The rapprochement, from which Turkey also hoped to benefit economically, appears to be history for the time being.
Erdogan would have liked to be a sought-after mediator, similar to the war in Ukraine. Ankara would have the necessary channels to Hamas. Its boss, Ismail Hanija, was just a guest in Turkey in July of this year. The Islamists are also said to have offices in Ankara.
Erdogan needs the international stage
But the attempt seems to have failed. Egypt and Qatar currently play the role of mediator. “If Hamas wants to fight Israel, it turns to Iran. If it wants peace, it turns to Egypt. If it needs financial resources, it turns to Qatar,” says expert Salim Cevik. Turkey has little importance. Erdogan’s sharp tones could also be an expression of frustration over this exclusion. “Therefore, he is looking for a different position by presenting himself as the protector of Sunni Muslims,” says Cevik.
Erdogan needs the international stage. His success among voters has always been based on his image as an internationally powerful and sought-after politician.
In addition, the Turkish head of state’s criticism also serves a pro-Palestinian tendency among the population. Erdogan fears losing part of his base to other conservative parties, all of which take the harshest tone against Israel, says Cevik.
The head of the co-ruling ultranationalist MHP, for example, is openly calling for Turkish soldiers to be sent to Gaza. The Islamist partner, the Hüda Par party, is calling for the closure of the Incirlik air base in southern Turkey, which is used by the US Air Force. Erdogan has only had a slim majority since this year’s elections. This must be maintained against the background of the upcoming regional elections in March 2024.
Erdogan’s statements stand out. From the Gulf states, for example, more diplomatic tones came from the majority. However, it is more than unlikely that the Turkish president seriously wants to further escalate the conflict. He also repeatedly calls for a ceasefire and peace negotiations.
The West seems to have largely ignored the head of state of the NATO country so far. Erdogan’s visit to Germany is planned for mid-November.