analysis
The CDU is touring the country with its draft of the new basic program. For party leader Merz, most events are feel-good events. The question is how far the journey goes for him.
In the end, the question about the fire wall in Chemnitz still comes up. If they exist in the AfD, why not in the Greens too? The CDU leader is obviously prepared: after all, it was to be expected that the topic would come up at this regional conference.
In the East, the Greens are sometimes met with sheer hatred. There are many in the East German CDU state associations who would like to see a clear demarcation from the party. But Friedrich Merz counters this and repeats his well-known position: The CDU must remain in conversation with all democratic parties, and that is the Greens, Democrats.
A few shouts of no from the audience and it’s over, the only really critical moment for Merz that evening. He gets appreciative applause, although not a standing ovation. The audience seems satisfied, if not enthusiastic. A balance that also fits the party chairman’s two-year term in office.
Just don’t make any more mistakes
In the summer it still looked as if Merz could face similar short appearances as chairman as his two predecessors Armin Laschet and Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer. The trigger was an evening in August. At that time, some dams in the CDU broke. When Merz announced in front of cameras in the ZDF summer interview that cooperation with the AfD at the local level could hardly be avoided, a storm of indignation followed.
CDU members publicly distanced themselves from the statement almost every minute. The party leader was forced to explain himself again and make it clear that the AfD’s firewall was not crumbling.
In the weeks that followed, Merz remained under constant observation. When another interview with the chairman came up, the tension in the CDU was high: please, no more rhetorical faux pas. And in fact there were no major blunders.
Staged as anti-Scholz
More than six months later, calm has returned to the party, at least outwardly. Many in the CDU are satisfied with the demeanor of their party leader. It is well received that Merz is tackling the traffic light coalition harshly and presenting himself as the anti-Scholz. As party leader, he also led the CDU back onto a more conservative and economically liberal course, thus pacifying the longing among many to distance themselves from the Merkel era.
There is hardly any doubt about party and faction leader Merz right now. But does the trust in Merz as a person go so far as to nominate him as a candidate for chancellor? Another legislative session in opposition would probably tear the CDU apart. So the next shot has to be right.
But is Merz the right person to convert the penalty? In the government district it is said that the team around Olaf Scholz is hoping for Merz as a competitor, apparently in order to still have a chance at a second chancellorship. No compliments for Merz.
The K question remains open
Little comes from the Union on the K question. It’s noticeably quiet. Saxony’s Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer believes the decision has already been made and Bavaria’s head of state Markus Söder sees Merz as the favorite, at least “at the moment”, as he emphasizes. But there are hardly any other prominent voices.
One sentence seems to be rehearsed, especially among influential state chairmen: a decision will be made in due course. Who you are and when you will be when the time comes is open. At least it seems to be after the state elections in East Germany.
That should be in the interest of those who want a candidate other than Merz. Because there is still a lot of time until autumn: Merz may make another faux pas and thereby discredit himself. The hope could also be that he himself will gain the insight to hand over the candidacy for chancellor to someone else, possibly younger.
Possible agreements run in the background
Merz could go down in party annals as the chairman who brought the CDU back on the road to success and completed the generational change. A lot of it is in the subjunctive. The fact is that in the end it will be up to Merz to publicly announce the decision on the K question.
At least from the outside it must appear as if Merz is in control. Because days of chaos, like when Markus Söder and Armin Laschet fought for the candidacy for chancellor, should not be repeated again. Everyone in the CDU agrees on this.
That is why there will probably be no public initiatives and debates about the K question. Possible conversations, agreements and attempts at persuasion run in the background. There is already a lot of whispering in the party and parliamentary group: that Merz seems too impulsive for a candidate for chancellor and too unsympathetic.
Statesmanlike when traveling abroad
However, there are currently many indications that Merz has the confidence to become chancellor. He recently appeared statesmanlike on trips abroad and was even received by French President Emmanuel Macron and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. And the debate he initiated about potential coalition partners also shows that the CDU leader is already thinking through the period after the next federal election.
But Merz still has a few hurdles to overcome. On the one hand, there is the party conference in May, at which he will stand for re-election as chairman and the new basic program will be finalized. Even if the three days in Berlin will not be decisive for the K question, they are at least a mood test.
The European elections and the state elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg could be more decisive. If the AfD performs strongly and even overtakes the CDU, a federal chairman will also have to ask himself what part he has in this result.