Meeting in Munich
Two wars and a nightmare: The (in)security conference
The logo of the Munich Security Conference. Around 50 heads of state and government and more than 100 ministers from all over the world come together at the Hotel Bayerischer Hof from Friday to Sunday. photo
© Sven Hoppe/dpa
With the war drama in Gaza and the fears about aid to Ukraine, the starting position for the Munich Security Conference was already bleak enough. Then there was also a threat from Donald Trump.
That is a very legitimate question. But it is doubtful whether there will be much time for this on the three conference days from Friday to Sunday in the Hotel Bayerischer Hof, where around 50 heads of state and government and more than 100 ministers from all over the world will gather. Because the current conflict situation is bleaker than ever.
The war drama in the Gaza Strip has come to a head since Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the preparation of a military offensive in Rafah on the Egyptian border. There is hope in the struggle for US aid for Ukraine, but it is far from a breakthrough. And then Donald Trump, former President of the USA and currently campaigning again, frightened and upset the allies on the other side of the Atlantic just in time for the conference with just a few words.
In Munich the focus is now on three questions:
Ukraine: Will the war alliance against Putin hold?
The conference guest list is long, but one participant stands out: Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky. He wants to come to Munich for the first time since the Russian attack on his country. His presence is more important than ever for Ukraine. Because the alliance of his allies is threatening to crumble.
Republicans in the US Congress have been blocking new billions for weapons and military equipment for Ukraine for months. With the Senate’s approval of an aid package, there is at least hope. However, the House of Representatives, the second chamber of parliament, is considered a more difficult hurdle. The members in demand in Munich will therefore be its members. Of the more than 30 members of Congress traveling to Munich, about a dozen belong to Trump’s Republican Party. The US government is represented by Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
If the USA were to be the largest donor, the Europeans would not be able to fully compensate. Everyone agrees on that. And Germany would unexpectedly find itself in the leading role of supporters. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) is uncomfortable with this. Since the beginning of the year, he has been trying to pressure EU partners to provide more help. This will also be an important topic for him in Munich. Scholz will give his speech at the conference on Saturday and have several discussions on the sidelines.
Middle East: How do you get the conflict under control?
The dramatic situation in the southern Gaza Strip and the desperate search for solutions to the Middle East conflict will perhaps take up even more space on the sidelines of the conference than Ukraine. President Izchak Herzog and Foreign Minister Israel Katz are coming to Munich from Israel. The Palestinian Authority and neighboring Arab states such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt are also highly represented. For them there will only be one topic in Munich: How can we get the Middle East conflict under control before it escalates further and causes a conflagration across the entire region?
Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) is coming to Munich almost immediately after her fifth trip to Israel since the Hamas terrorist attack on October 7th. There she called for a new ceasefire in the Gaza war. But one person will be missing in Munich: Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is coming under increasing criticism for his conduct of the war.
USA: What happens if Trump comes to power?
Donald Trump made it very clear as US President between 2017 and 2021 that NATO was anything but a matter of the heart for him. The fact that he now wants to deny NATO defaulters protection from Russia has a new quality. The fact that the USA under President Trump could withdraw troops or their nuclear bombs from Europe or immediately question NATO membership is a security policy nightmare for the 29 NATO states in Europe. The US still accounts for two-thirds of the alliance’s defense spending and has ten times as many nuclear weapons as NATO’s other two nuclear powers, France and Great Britain, combined.
Whether and how one should prepare for a possible election victory for Trump is controversial in Europe. French President Emmanuel Macron is calling for more European sovereignty in security issues and called for a common European nuclear deterrent four years ago. Chancellor Scholz doesn’t want to know anything about it, but the new Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk does. “These words from Donald Trump should act as a cold shower for all those who continue to underestimate this increasingly real threat to Europe,” said Tusk at the beginning of the week during his inaugural visit to Berlin, referring to the nuclear power Russia. The discussion is likely to continue in Munich.
The Russian government and the AfD must stay outside
The regular guests at the MSC used to include government politicians from Russia, especially Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Since the Russian attack on Ukraine, that has been over and the Russian government is unwelcome in Munich. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently made it clear that he was not prepared to negotiate with the current government in Ukraine, Heusgen explains his approach. “That means there is no serious willingness to talk.” That’s why the conference leader only invited exiled Russian politicians and Russians from non-governmental organizations. He acted similarly with Iran. And politicians from the AfD, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance and the Union of Values must also stay outside.
No resolutions planned
And what can ultimately come out of the conference? It is not designed to generate resolutions. The MSC is a discussion forum designed to advance debate and develop new ideas for greater security in the world. But this has become increasingly difficult in recent years. And in the end there was one thing above all: a lot of helplessness.