Tomorrow there will be the first high-level talks between Ukraine and Russia – mediated by Turkey. Its President Erdogan maintains relations with all sides, with Moscow, Kyiv and NATO. But dealing with the Russian head of state Putin is tricky for Erdogan.
Turkey is in a bind. With every support or non-support of Ukraine, with every interference or non-interference in Russia’s war of aggression, Ankara offends an important partner. Turkey continues to maintain good relations with both Moscow and Kyiv. As a NATO member, it would also have obligations to the West in the event of an alliance. It is therefore important for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to position himself without losing a connection to this triangular team. However, it is not only good relations that are at stake – it is also about preventing an economic catastrophe in your own country and protecting your own borders.
“The war in Ukraine has become a threat to Ankara’s own security because Turkey sees itself in the pincer grip of Russia,” Rasim Marz explained in an interview with ntv.de. Russian troops are already approaching her from southern Syria and now, through the Crimean base of Sevastopol, from the Black Sea to the north. Marz is a historian and publicist for the history of the Ottoman Empire and modern Turkey. He says: “It would be the worst case for Turkey if the Black Sea became Russian waters after the war.” Because every Russian expansion to the south has traditionally made the country nervous – and has been for over a century.
The trauma from the fall of the Ottoman Empire and the constant threat from the Tsarist Empire are still present. At the end of the 1880s, “Russian troops were just 30 kilometers from Istanbul and about to take the capital,” Marz recalls. “The Turks cannot forget that.” In principle, Turkey is in a similar situation to the Baltic States. “They want to avoid being exposed to direct aggression from Russia at all costs.”
Delivery of combat drones to Ukraine
Ankara does not want to irritate Moscow, but as the war escalated Erdogan’s initial reticence became increasingly difficult to sustain. So related after initial hesitation a few days after the start of the war, he finally took up position and lock Turkish straits on the Dardanelles and Bosphorus for foreign warships for the first time since World War II. While Ankara is blocking the only access to the Black Sea, where Russian war ports are also located, it is trying to keep the balancing act. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu hastened to assure that the blockade was not aimed specifically at Russia, only international law, the Montreux Treaty, was being implemented.
The Turkish deliveries of combat drones to Ukraine are likely to strain Turkish-Russian relations far more than the closure of the Straits. The drone from the Turkish manufacturer Bayraktar is celebrated online as a miracle weapon – numerous videos of supposedly successful drone operations against Russian convoys or supply trucks are distributed. The Ukrainian embassy in Turkey also posts such videos on Twitter and praises the weapon with the words “Mashalla Bayraktar TB2”. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also emphasized that his country has benefited from these drones. The assignments cannot be proven independently.
What is certain, however, is that Ukraine owns the Turkish combat drones. They were already being used in the fight against Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine before the war of aggression, which is why Putin has already warned Erdogan. Erdogan rejected the threats and defended the deliveries, which continued even after the war began. “New Bayraktars have already arrived in Ukraine and entered service,” Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov wrote on Facebook on Tuesday after the war began.
Crimea has “historical significance” for Ankara
Turkey feels obliged to Ukraine because, as a Black Sea neighbor, it has become an important partner in the area, says Turkey expert Marz. “Especially after the annexation of Crimea, the volume of trade between the countries increased.” Last year it was more than five billion dollars. A few weeks before the war, Erdogan and Selenskyj signed a free trade agreement and arms cooperation was also to be strengthened. In addition, Turkey is the largest foreign investor in Ukraine.
“The good trade relationship with Ukraine is also driven by the fact that Ankara wants to have a non-EU European member on its side,” explains Marz. It would be an opportunity to build a strong economic link to Europe. This has been difficult in the past because of the sanctions the EU has imposed on Turkey. In addition to economic interests, “one must not forget the historical importance of Ukraine and Crimea in this conflict,” says Marz. “For more than 300 years, Crimea was part of the Ottoman Empire and thus secured its supremacy in the Black Sea.” Ankara also feels responsible for the minority of Crimean Tatars living in Ukraine.
During the conflict in Crimea, Erdogan called on Putin to ensure peaceful coexistence between Ukrainians, Russians and Tatars. After the annexation, he condemned Moscow’s actions, but did not support the West’s economic sanctions. The situation is similar today: the Turkish head of state condemns Russia’s war of aggression, but does not participate in sanctions and “nor does it intend to do so,” as Foreign Minister Cavusoglu made clear on Turkish television.
Economically dependent on Moscow
For Turkey itself, there is too much at stake economically: Like Germany, it gets 44 percent of its gas and oil from Russia. Two thirds of all wheat deliveries come from the trading partner in the east and the Russian state-owned company “Rosatom” is building the first nuclear power plant in Turkey. The fact that Russian airlines continue to take off and land at Turkish airports is probably also due to the fact that Russia plays an important role in the Turkish tourism industry: last year, Russians were the largest group of foreign holidaymakers in the country. If trade relations with Moscow deteriorate, the Turkish economy would feel this with all severity – and where it is already shaken by a currency crisis.
So what to do? For its own interests alone, Ankara is keen to defuse the conflict as soon as possible. Even before the war, Erdogan had therefore brought himself into play as a mediator. Before a phone call between him and Putin last weekend, Erdogan’s spokesman Ibrahim Kalin again spoke of Ankara as a “neutral mediator” in the Ukraine conflict. After the West “burned down the bridges,” someone else had to talk to Russia. “It is important that Moscow has a contact it trusts,” he said.
In fact, Turkey is one of the few NATO members that has good relations with both Moscow and Kyiv. Ankara and Moscow have more in common than pure trade relationship. Despite fierce criticism from NATO partners, Turkey bought a Russian air defense system. “Criticism of the West also unites the states,” says Marz. “President Erdogan has repeatedly accused the European leaders of not having spoken with a unified voice in the Ukraine conflict.” The president now wants to exploit the weakness to establish himself as a mediator. He has already had a partial success. The foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine meet for talks in Turkey on Thursday. The meeting of Sergei Lavrov and Dmytro Kuleba will take place on the sidelines of a conference in Antalya, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Twitter.
“Ankara is not equal”
However, one should not expect much from this meeting, says Frank Sauer in an interview with ntv.de. “I believe that Russia will continue to insist on its maximum demand.” Since Russia is “in principle demanding total self-abandonment” and Ukraine is fighting back, the negotiations are deadlocked, according to the expert from the University of the German Armed Forces in Munich. Turkey expert Marz doesn’t believe that the Turkish president of all people can do much about it. Turkey sees “Russia as the heir to an equal great power and capable of achieving greater success than the EU as a mediator”. However, this does not apply the other way around. “Moscow doesn’t see Turkey as equal,” explains the historian. While she sees herself as a world power from Soviet times, “Turkey is only a regional power in her eyes.”
In addition, one should not overestimate the relationship between President Erdogan and President Putin, warns the expert. “From a Turkish point of view, there is no friendship with Moscow.” Marz recalls the incidents of the past few years, when Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet on its border with Syria and Moscow reacted with tough sanctions until Erdogan publicly apologized. “The relationship between the two heads of state is a shared stakeout of interests,” says Marz. In order to avoid conflicts, the balance of power was also clearly demarcated in Syria and Libya, where Russia and Turkey supported different parties to the conflict. One could describe the connection as a “crisis-proof working relationship,” says the expert. Despite everything, he emphasizes, “Turkey still sees Russia as a historic adversary.”
Even if the mediation attempts in the Ukraine war come to nothing, Erdogan could still pursue other interests with them. “Turkey is also striving for closer integration within NATO through its mediating role,” says Marz. She wants to win back the trust of her alliance partners, which has been lost in recent years. With all the interests that Turkey is pursuing in this conflict, this is the most important thing – “right now that the conflict is just around the corner.”