McCarthy in distress: Republicans are tearing themselves apart despite the threat of a shutdown

It’s a political showdown with an announcement. Every year, the US Congress must pass a new federal budget by the end of September to prevent the United States from sliding into default. And every year, Democrats and Republicans engage in bitter arguments over funding issues.

Congress in Washington usually first passes an interim budget to buy a few weeks of time. But even such an emergency solution seems to be a long way off in the currently deeply divided Republican faction. The consequence would be a so-called “shutdown” of the government, in which some civil servants would be forced to take a leave of absence or would have to work temporarily without pay.

Kevin McCarthy, Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives, wants to avoid such a deadlock at all costs. But since his party only holds a razor-thin majority in the chamber, he has little room to maneuver to bring the right-wing wing under control, which is blocking the spending plans. McCarthy is faced with a choice: either he continues to bargain with the right-wing hardliners who are bent on shutting down the government – or he makes a compromise with the Democrats that could mean his own political end.

Right-wing Republican wing puts McCarthy in trouble

On Tuesday, intra-party tensions in the House of Representatives escalated on Capitol Hill. Accusations of a “clown show” were hurled across the chamber by Republicans as a failed vote on the defense budget made it clear the caucus would not quickly agree on a short-term stopgap measure.

The proposed stopgap measure – known as a Continuing Resolution, or CR – would keep federal agencies running until October 31 and give Congress more time to reach a bipartisan budget compromise. Since none of the twelve required spending laws have been passed so far, there is hardly any way around such a bridging solution.

But some members of the right-wing Freedom Caucus now openly welcome a government shutdown as a negotiating tactic to get their way.

Matt Gaetz, one of the leaders, listed the demands in a social media post on: “We want: Individual budget bills per issue, a vote on term limits, a vote on a balanced budget law, the full release of the Capitol storm footage and to stop spending money at COVID/Biden levels!” appealed he and directed a blatant threat towards the speaker: “Time is running out, Kevin McCarthy.” His colleague, Rep. Chip Roy, urged the wing to “hold the line” and announced that a shutdown was now “almost” inevitable.

Turmoil in the Republican caucus

After the failed vote, nerves were on edge. The Republican MPs showered each other with sharp accusations. While the right-wing “Freedom Caucus” argues that their withdrawal of votes is in favor of massive spending cuts and “traditional Republican values”, the majority accuse them of party-damaging blockade tactics.

Veteran Republican Mike Simpson minced no words in criticizing the ability of a few recalcitrant members to hold the rest of the chamber hostage. “We are being dragged around by 20 people, but 200 of us agree,” he told reporters, announcing that he would make every single dissenting vote public. His colleague, Conservative MP Don Bacon, denounced the right-wing “Freedom Caucus” as a “dysfunctional caucus.” The failed vote shows that, given the looming September 30 deadline and massive resistance from the right, Republicans should consider working with Democrats “to find a solution to the budget deadlock.”

He is addressing an option that McCarthy would actually like to avoid as much as possible. If the Republicans in the House of Representatives do not come to a common denominator, the speaker could enter into negotiations directly with the Democrats in the Senate and bypass the right-wing hardliners. Bipartisan legislation could quickly pass both chambers of Congress and be signed by President Joe Biden before the federal authorities are cut off from funding.

But for McCarthy personally, the consequences could be fatal. The 58-year-old is aware that his political future depends on the favor of the Freedom Caucus.

It was just eight months ago that he had to struggle through 15 rounds of voting before they gave him the speaker’s post. The concessions he had to make to the radical right are now falling on his feet. In return for the speakership, McCarthy made the compromise that a single MP would be enough to trigger a vote of no confidence against him. A threat that has been expressed by the right wing in recent weeks, sometimes behind closed doors and sometimes openly on “X” – formerly Twitter. “It would be the end of his term in office,” said Ralph Norman, a member of the Freedom Caucus, with a view to a Democratic deal.

The prospect of a shutdown is getting worse

McCarthy doesn’t want to let things get that far yet. Contrary to the sharp criticism from the right wing, the speaker announced that the CR would be brought into the plenary hall on Thursday. Given the narrow majority of 221 to 212, he cannot afford to lose by more than four Republican votes. And even if the bill were to pass the House of Representatives, it would have little chance in the Democratic-led Senate. But McCarthy and his allies argue that legislation passed exclusively with Republican votes would give the speaker greater leverage to negotiate with Democrats.

The Republican minority leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, also tried to convince his opposing party colleagues. He said on Tuesday that he was not a fan of a “shutdown” in which the government’s financing scope was cut. “I’ve seen a few over the years. They’ve never resulted in a change in policy. And for Republicans, they’ve always been a political loss.”

Speaker McCarthy is also aware of this. In the coming days he will therefore do everything in his power to make the impossible possible and persuade the right wing to compromise before the government is threatened with a shutdown. His only glimmer of hope: Even in the past, an agreement was only reached shortly before the deadline.

“It’s not September 30th yet,” a half-belligerent, half-desperate-looking McCarthy told reporters in the Capitol. “We still have a long week ahead of us.”

Sources: “NY Times“, “Washington Post“, “CNN“, “Reuters“, with DPA material