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Hardly anyone can seriously doubt that the CSU with Markus Söder will once again be the strongest force in the Bavarian elections on Sunday. And yet for Söder it is also about his political future.
Markus Söder’s team organized a feel-good appointment at the CSU headquarters in the north of Munich. The CSU leader and Bavarian Prime Minister hosts students who interview him. They sit in front of him on a play mat. Söder himself sits on a chair. “Is your life as stressful as mine?” a little boy wants to know. “Probably a lot looser than yours,” Söder replies promptly. With a wink, he adds that his life is already very stressful.
Markus Söder shared this sequence on his Instagram account. More scenes from this afternoon will be available on his social media channels later. He talks about his childhood: he wanted to be a soccer player or a tennis player or maybe even an astronaut. They are likeable moments. According to the rule: children and animals always go.
Beer tent and bratwurst
Söder shares walks with his dogs Molly and Bella as well as his other daily routine. These days it’s mainly beer tent performances. Plus an award ceremony here, the cattle drive there. And there are always pictures of food: pork knuckle, bratwurst and sometimes salad. There is now a cookbook from #Söderisst.
When the Prime Minister waits with the school bag: Markus Söder in front of a primary school in Munich.
Pastor or politician
As much as Söder might downplay his stress in front of the school children, he wanted exactly that stress. In any case, following in his father’s footsteps was out of the question. The father himself, a bricklayer, attests that his son had a “big mouth and two left hands” at an early age. The best way for him to do this would be to become a priest or a politician. Söder likes to tell this anecdote – preferably in front of craftsmen.
Söder studied law. After the first state examination, he completed a traineeship at Bavarian Radio, worked briefly as a television editor. As the BR Many years later, when he made a documentary about him, he gave his former colleagues the tip that should probably be understood as an instruction: “Be careful, camera work!” The family shouldn’t be included in the picture; he protects his children from the public.
He himself is looking for exactly this kind of publicity. In 1994, party friends in the Junge Union encouraged him to run in the Nuremberg West constituency. Söder prevailed against much more experienced candidates and entered the state parliament as a 27-year-old.
Meticulousness, toughness and will to power
The then Bavarian Prime Minister and CSU chairman Edmund Stoiber became his mentor. He made Söder general secretary of the CSU in 2003, a post he held until 2007. Söder’s demands were always a little louder, a little more shrill. His range of topics grew, as did his influence. He quickly worked his way into other departments. In 2007 he became Minister for European Affairs, and shortly afterwards Minister for the Environment and Health, and Minister for Home Affairs and Finance.
In 2008, Federal Environment Minister Sigmar Gabriel (SPD) blasphemed his then Bavarian counterpart: Söder was the one who “says a lot of nonsense as loudly as possible.”
Little by little, Söder expanded his power base in the party and parliamentary group. At the end of 2017, there was an open power struggle against Prime Minister and CSU leader Horst Seehofer. In a small group, he attested to Söder’s “dirty behavior and character weaknesses”. A description that at least doesn’t surprise Söder’s biographer Roman Deininger. He calls Söder “shameless and clever at the same time.”
Power struggle for the Candidacy for chancellor
In any case, Söder achieved his goal: he became Prime Minister and at the beginning of 2019 also CSU boss. He was at the top – in Bavaria. There is another interesting position in Germany: in the Chancellery. When it became clear that Angela Merkel would no longer run in 2021, Söder strategized and played poker for weeks until he gave way to the CDU leader and North Rhine-Westphalia Prime Minister Armin Laschet to run for chancellor. Had to leave. But there is no trace of support in the federal election campaign. What followed was an unprecedented antagonism in the Union. As is well known, the Union lost the election. Laschet will later say that he initially trusted Söder.
After losing the federal election, the CSU leader certainly showed a hint of self-criticism. This squabble over the candidacy for chancellor should not be allowed to happen again, it is said today in unison from the Union. But no one knows for sure whether Söder has really given up all of his ambitions to become chancellor.
Election campaign in the shadow of the leaflet affair
For now, however, his place remains in Bavaria. A lot will also depend on how the state elections turn out for the CSU. It shouldn’t be a worse result than the historically bad 37.2 percent from 2018 if Söder really wants to seriously think about a new attempt on the K question.
In terms of power politics, Söder decided early on in Bavaria. He wants to continue to govern with a “bourgeois coalition”. This means he is stuck with his coalition partner, the Free Voters – and is therefore in a strategic dilemma. This became more than clear through the leaflet affair involving Free Voters leader Hubert Aiwanger. Söder was clearly displeased with Aiwanger’s handling of the allegations. But he left his economics minister in office; dismissing him shortly before the election might have caused even more political damage for Söder and the CSU. The Free Voters recently benefited in the surveys, the CSU did not.
At the CSU party conference two weeks before the election, Söder switched to attacking the supposedly small coalition partner. The Free Voters had claimed a claim to another ministry after the election. Söder speculated that the surveys had probably gone to some people’s heads. In any case, the Ministry of Agriculture will remain in CSU hands, he made it clear. The CSU delegates demonstratively supported Söder in the re-election as CSU boss with 96.5 percent.
A “choice of fate”?
His attacks on the previous and probably future coalition partners could also be seen as an attempt to put Aiwanger and his Free Voters in their place. Actually, Söder had identified the Greens as the main opponents in the election campaign. He hasn’t hugged trees for a long time. He ruled out black and green.
Under these circumstances, Söder now has to take part in this election. The word about the “choice of fate” is making the rounds. For Söder and for the CSU. If the surveys are confirmed and the Free Voters return to the cabinet table with gains, Söder’s name would probably be associated with the fact that the days of CSU autocracy in Bavaria are finally over.