analysis
Status: 06.01.2023 3:42 p.m
The federal government is now supplying armored personnel carriers to Ukraine. An important step, but also a later one. And the next debate has already begun.
German support for Ukraine is entering a new phase – there is no doubt about it: for a long time it seemed to critics that there was a red line in the Chancellor’s mind that Olaf Scholz had firmly resolved not to cross.
Especially in the ranks of the FDP and Greens, politicians rolled their eyes when the chancellery presented the mantra-like argument that it would not go it alone to deliver western-style battle tanks and armored personnel carriers to Ukraine. Scholz has now erased or at least moved this red line, if it ever existed.
“Marten” can make a real difference
A considerable part of this is probably due to military insight: Due to a lack of material, Ukrainian soldiers sometimes have to be carted to the front line in open pick-up trucks and are therefore vulnerable to Russian fire. German armored personnel carriers, together with material from the USA and France, can make a real difference here – and the “Marder” can thus help Ukraine to regain stolen areas.
In addition, fears have recently grown again that Russia could regain the upper hand in the spring after the front lines have been largely frozen. This can also be explained by the fact that the turning point in time is now being followed by a kind of armored turnaround.
Why so late?
Critics from the opposition, but also from the ranks of the Greens and the FDP, are now asking: Why only now? For months, Kyiv has been desperately asking for the delivery of armored personnel carriers and battle tanks. The US has been signaling for some time that they definitely want a braver Germany.
Traffic light coalition partners have been pointing to a suggestion for elegantly avoiding the moral cliff of a German “military solo” for months: by supplying the “Leopard” main battle tank, for example, in conjunction with other European countries – and not alone.
“The partners lead the way, we follow”
Chancellor spokesman Steffen Hebestreit now points out that such a decision is not made “out of the blue,” meaning that the United States and France have been in agreement since mid-December. Nonetheless, it was French President Emmanuel Macron who rushed ahead on Wednesday evening to announce that he would be supplying light battle tanks to Ukraine.
This gave the impression once again that Germany would only act under extreme pressure from outside and only when it was really unavoidable. “It’s a pattern: the partners lead the way, we follow,” says Jana Puglierin from the think tank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) in an interview with the ARD Capital Studio.
Yet Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht recently reaffirmed that Germany wanted to play a “leading role” in Europe in terms of security policy.
Practical questions are still unresolved
In any case, the pressure to act as a result of Macron’s announcement on Thursday was so great that the chancellor announced the “Marder” delivery before practical questions had been clarified: for example, whether the armored personnel carriers should come from Bundeswehr stocks or from industry. It would be faster, found out ARD Capital Studio from informed circles, when the force itself provided some not in use.
But even at the Rheinmetall company, there were probably still about 60 available models, which, however, still had to be made operational. The federal government apparently has 40 “Marders” in mind that it wants to give to Ukraine — as well as a “Patriot” anti-aircraft system. Both of these still require training for the Ukrainian armed forces. Here, too, Germany will play a decisive role.
Does the taboo on the delivery of main battle tanks remain?
And then there’s the question of battle tanks: now that the “Zeitenwende” chancellor has initiated the “tank turnaround” and wants to supply the Ukraine with armored personnel carriers, the “Leopard 2” battle tank should no longer be taboo, the opposition is already demanding all the louder – like coalition politicians.
They point out that Russian President Vladimir Putin will only go to the negotiating table if he sees that he is no longer making any progress militarily. And to the fact that such a delivery is also in Germany’s very own security interest: If Putin wins his war of annihilation, he will feel encouraged and will thus become an even greater threat.
One thing is clear: the more material Ukraine has to use up in their defensive struggle, the greater the pressure on Scholz to give in here too. The debate about the “marten” may be over, the debate about the “leopard” has only just begun.