analysis
Defense Minister Pistorius wants to decide on reintroducing compulsory military service by the summer. Various models are currently being examined in his ministry. Scandinavia could be a role model.
Defense Minister Pistorius wants to have his planners present a list of worldwide conscription models by mid-April. He announced this on ZDF at the beginning of the week. Then he wants to go into analysis by summer and make his decision.
Pistorius wants to take his time. Because a reintroduction is legally and structurally difficult to implement. And Chancellor Olaf Scholz made it clear this week: There will no longer be “military service like before” and a conscript army with 400,000 soldiers.
Such a variant is not being seriously discussed in the Defense Ministry because the Bundeswehr no longer has the corresponding training structures and a large conscript army would also be very expensive. In 2011, compulsory military service was suspended by the then Defense Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, CSU, primarily for cost reasons.
Chancellor Scholz is also critical of a general service obligation for all young people. If an entire cohort, an average of around 750,000 men and women, were to be required to do military service or social work, the economy would lack many workers. It must therefore also be taken into account that Germany is facing ever greater challenges due to a labor shortage.
In addition, from the Chancellor’s point of view, a general obligation to serve would require a change to the Basic Law. During a discussion with newspaper readers in Mainz this week, Scholz pointed out that the Basic Law had banned compulsory work following the experiences of the Nazi dictatorship.
Structural and legal issues
For the Bundeswehr’s planners, the number of annual conscripts that they would have to integrate into the force is important. Inspector General Carsten Breuer looks at the military needs. This means that Germany’s highest-ranking soldier sees the tasks that must be taken on by the Bundeswehr within NATO in the event of war. And from his point of view, the number of possible conscripts should be based on this.
The NATO plans for the Bundeswehr are currently still being evaluated, so we don’t yet know how many conscripts we would actually need. As far as the so-called “growth capability” of the Bundeswehr in an emergency is concerned, “we are not there yet,” says General Breuer in an interview with the SWR. He expects results in the next three to four months, which will then be incorporated into Defense Minister Pistorius’ decision.
If compulsory military service were reintroduced, legal questions would also have to be clarified. For example, there is the so-called military justice. It was another reason for the suspension of compulsory military service in 2011. At that time, only a small proportion of each year group was required to serve. The rest was no longer collected.
Another question: So far only men are required to serve. If you want to transfer conscription models from other countries to the German system, you would probably need changes to the Basic Law and two-thirds majorities in the Bundestag and Bundesrat. Introducing compulsory military service that is both flexible and legally secure is by no means a trivial task.
The focus is on Scandinavia
Defense Minister Pistorius recently visited Sweden, Norway and Finland to find out about military service, muster procedures and the deployment of young men and women. And the Ministry of Defense is also currently analyzing the northern European conscription models, which differ in details.
In Denmark, for example, there are currently more volunteers than there are training places. This may also be due to the fact that the training has so far been short at four months. However, it is to be extended and compulsory military service for women will also be introduced from 2026. If the required number of recruits can no longer be reached voluntarily, a draw will be held.
Breuer does not yet want to make a decision on the issue of compulsory military service, he says SWR-Interview but sympathy for the personnel-flexible Swedish conscription model. In Sweden, all young people are recorded. And they receive a questionnaire about themselves and details such as illnesses that they have to fill out two years before they can start their service.
After an initial selection, only some are invited to the muster and end up in the army. So only as many men and women serve as are needed by the army. If there are too few conscripts, compulsory conscription can also occur in Sweden.
However, lawyers have doubts as to whether this variant would be compatible with the constitutional requirements in Germany. A further change to the constitution would probably also be necessary, as compulsory military service applies to men and women in Sweden.
Defense Minister Pistorius doesn’t want to “come around the corner with some half-baked model that then blows up in his face,” he said this week on ZDF. This means he has to clarify difficult structural and legal questions for his conscription proposal. And then fight for political majorities. Also in the traffic lights, where the FDP and the Greens rely on voluntariness. The reintroduction of compulsory military service is likely to be a long time coming.