Status: 02/10/2022 04:33 a.m
Ein major military maneuvers in Belarus increases nervousness in the region. The leadership in Moscow and Minsk emphasizes the defensive character, while Ukraine sees itself surrounded. But is it really about her?
Union determination is the name of the joint maneuver by Russia and Belarus, which will enter its critical phase between today and February 20th. According to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, the military exercise will take place at five different locations in Belarus. They are mostly in the west of the country, on the borders with Poland and Ukraine. A week ago, Shoigu underscored that Russia would adhere to international obligations and be transparent.
I emphasize that the number of participants in the maneuvers will not exceed the number for maneuvers with conventional arms specified in the Vienna Document. We are not obliged to inform our partners. Despite this, the Russian Defense Ministry voluntarily informed military attachés from foreign states about the joint maneuver.
That would mean less than 13,000 soldiers, 300 tanks, 500 armored vehicles and 3500 paratroopers. According to the official statement, the defense against an enemy attack, in particular the protection of airspace and state borders, is to be practiced, which is why air force and air defense groups also take part, according to Shoigu.
The last missing piece of the puzzle?
With more than 125,000 Russian troops deployed along the Ukrainian border, the West fears that the maneuver is the last piece of the puzzle needed for Russia to attack Ukraine. The Ukrainian military expert Mykola Sunhurowskyj now sees his country surrounded from almost all sides – “not only from the people’s republics of Luhansk and Donetsk or in the south near Mariupol, but now also along the border with Belarus. Since our troops are limited, we are in principle encircled on all sides except the West. We are forced to disperse our forces along the border now, and this creates favorable conditions for formations of Russian troops.”
However, Sunhurowskyj believes that no one can say where an attack will take place – provocations from the self-proclaimed People’s Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk or even from Belarus are also possible. The ruler there, Lukashenko, had already threatened to support Russia in the event of a war against Ukraine. In an interview with Russian state television, he said:
If they attack us or Russia, we will fight and defend ourselves. The Belarusian army will act in the same way as the Russian one. Of course that will be a common answer – do you think we’re joking here on the southern border today?
Maybe also a message to the West
But observers’ opinions continue to differ on the assessment of this maneuver and Putin’s real intentions. Valery Shiryaev, Russian military expert for the independent newspaper “Novaya Gazeta,” sees this primarily as a message to the West:
As of now, when all military transports are unloaded, it is absolutely clear that the anti-aircraft defenses are aimed west, not Ukraine – although Lukashenko, when explaining the need for the maneuver, described Ukraine as the enemy. But this is a real maneuver to increase pressure on the negotiating partners on the issue of NATO’s non-expansion.
In addition, the exercise was prepared provocatively slowly. Most of the participants come from the Far East. As far as Novosibirsk alone, they had been on the road for more than a week, reports Shiryaev; a city more than 3000 kilometers away from Moscow – “so that the NATO satellites can see everything and the Western media can speculate as to why they drive and drive and drive”.
“Union Resolve”: Joint maneuvers by Belarus and Russia
Stephan Laack, ARD Moscow, February 9, 2022 5:34 p.m