Lucas Hernandez, announced at PSG, has been playing less than Neymar for four years: a foolish bet?

If the Bavarian club had paid twice that amount to recruit him to Atlético de Madrid in 2019 (80 million euros, record in the history of the club), the amount that Paris would be preparing to spend would not remains no lower. Already compared to the contractual situation of a free player in a year. Also in relation to the sporting unknown that it represents. Hernandez has not played an official match since suffering a serious knee injury in France’s match against Australia at the 2022 World Cup seven months ago, although he returned to training in last April.

A big flaw and a lot of qualities

In this case, the notion of betting is based first on the state of health of Lucas Hernandez. Its ability to regain its best level after such a period of inactivity remains to be proven. The 2018 world champion is best known for his propensity to get injured. Between his knee problems and his recurring muscle problems, he played only 107 matches in all of his four seasons at Bayern according to the transfermarkt site. By way of comparison, Neymar, certainly the least reliable player at PSG physically, has played more over the same period (115).

Lucas Hernandez does not have physical reliability as a quality, but he has others. Its versatility, with an ability to evolve in the center of defense or in a full-back position with a very high level of performance. His state of mind, too. Aggressive and combative, he offers virtues that are regularly lacking at PSG. Even more after the departure of Sergio Ramos, whose contribution in this area was considerable. Lucas Hernandez also knows the requirement of the big clubs after having been confronted with it at Atlético and Bayern, where he won the Champions League.

Multiple questions

There are reasons to sign Lucas Hernandez despite his injury history, if the risk of taking this bet is measured against the squad in this sector. This is where the choice of PSG challenges. Paris is already facing the long-term injury of Presnel Kimpembe, unavailable until the fall. He should see the arrival of Milan Skriniar, who has not played since February due to a back problem. He must deal with the recurring physical glitches of Nuno Mendes. And Sergio Ramos, his most used field player last season (45 matches), left.

There would still be other questions posed by a possible arrival of Lucas Hernandez. He has the same age and a profile quite similar to that of Kimpembe, even if he is more versatile. The future of “Presko”, who has only one year of contract left in Paris, would only be more vague. That of young El-Chadaille Bitshiabu as well. The 17-year-old defender aspires to have more playing time and he would see a rookie land in his position. Kimpembe and Bitshiabu are two players trained at PSG. Their fate is not trivial in the perspective of a more “Parisian” identity within the workforce of the champion of France.

There would also be consequences for the rest of the PSG transfer window. The recruitment of Ugarte would already cost PSG 60 million euros. If that of Hernandez materializes, Paris will have already spent nearly 100 million euros without having reinforced its priority positions in the offensive sector. The capital club are targeting a world-class centre-forward to accompany Kylian Mbappé in attack, and are also targeting Bernardo Silva to fill the spot left vacant by the departure of Leo Messi. The financial margin to complete these two very expensive files would inevitably be more limited.

For all these reasons, recruiting Lucas Hernandez would seem like a bet for PSG. It may seem harsh to consider it foolish. In top form, he is a dominant defender, capable of considerably raising the level of the capital club in a sector that has been failing since the departure of Thiago Silva. His talent is certainly not in question. Beyond the physical parameter, it is above all the timing that questions. Paris has entered a crucial transfer window for its project as its decline has become obvious this season. His recruitment must offer him guarantees. And Lucas Hernandez, like the other reinforcements announced at the start of the market, does not completely offer the best prospects in this regard.