“LREM and the Modem both have to gain by showing disagreements”, according to political scientist Stéphane Rozès

Stupor in Macronie. This Tuesday evening, and against all expectations, the National Assembly voted against the key article of the bill for the gradual exit from the state of health emergency, including in particular the “health pass”. A “no” which owes a lot to the Modem, having let go of La République En Marche (LREM) for overwhelmingly voted against. “There was no dialogue and listening” on “the red lines” of the text, within the majority, explained Philippe Latombe (Modem), stressing the unanimity of his group against the article.

A second vote took place in the evening, allowing the text to pass. But are the tensions that have arisen between the Modem and LREM a sign of a crisis between the two parties? For Stéphane Rozès, political scientist and president of CAP (Advice, analyzes and perspectives), this mini-drama, on the contrary, is the business of both parties.

Can we speak of a political crisis within the majority after the events of yesterday?

To speak of crisis is undoubtedly a little exaggerated, it is rather dissensions on very specific political visions. From the beginning, the Modem has been playing within the parliamentary majority a little music accepted by Emmanuel Macron to the extent that François Bayrou had provided him with significant help during the 2017 presidential election. Thanks to this support, also necessary in 2022 , the Modem has succeeded in having a very advantageous parliamentary representation which allows it to make its voice heard. There is not a deliberate desire to stand out on all subjects, but this is a divergence around the themes of collective and individual freedom, therefore important enough to stand out.

The Modem is a centrist family which has always had a European humanist approach, it was important that the deputies are in connection with this line. I wouldn’t speak of a crisis, but the expression of a difference. There are other grounds for distinction and more important disagreement between LREM and the Modem, such as proportionality, for example, one of the workhorses of François Bayrou’s party. But now is not the time for a crisis. François Bayrou has a job to accomplish which requires calm and the situation is sufficiently singular and politically unstable with the coronavirus for the Modem to add more.

The Modem had threatened not to vote for the text, a threat which seems not to have been taken into account by LREM before its execution. Has the Modem asserted itself?

We can speak of an assertion of oneself. The Modem has the political means to make itself heard, it would be wrong to deny it. But for LREM, it is not very serious, the vote was won only a few hours later. Each party saved face: the Modem by showing that it had significant political weight, LREM by seeing its bill finally adopted. Any political turmoil was quickly defused.

Does the majority come out diminished?

No, on the contrary, it is a double winning blow, because the majority takes care of two usual reproaches in the Fifth Republic for the formations in power. The impression that there is no debate and that the deputies are followers without reflection and the feeling of being governed by technocrats in power cut off from the world. The Modem not only brings a transient contradiction within the majority, which gives the image of a debate and an opposition, but also a political nuance with a more traditional base and closer to the field, which is sometimes lacking in Working. LREM will emerge weakened by the regional ones, the very image of Macronie with the “yellow giles” and the start of pandemic management is not very good in the country, the idea that there may be debates and disagreements within the majority, visions more humanistic than others, does everyone’s business well. Both LREM and the Modem stand to gain by showing disagreement.