Who to enter “the hell of Matignon”? This week again, the rumors of reshuffle agitate the political class. Emmanuel Macron, who blows hot and cold on the question, is he preparing a big upset? Weakened by this suspense, the first concerned, Elisabeth Borne, clings to her post in the face of the growing ambitions of some of her ministers. And during this period of waiting and hesitation, everyone tries to advance their pawns and avoid missteps to obtain (or keep) the coveted position. In this funny game of poker, what is the best strategy to become Prime Minister?
Strategy 1: Show loyalty
“I saw the other side of the mirror. What appeared to me to be mysterious is in reality very pragmatic, often disenchanted. A president only changes under duress, ”explains Gaspard Gantzer, the former communications adviser to François Hollande, from 2014 to 2017. To get the dream job, it is better to take care of your relationship with the boss. “The number one criterion is loyalty to the head of state. You have to be at his service, and from this point of view, Elisabeth Borne plays it well. She does not seek to shine and does not overshadow him, ”he continues.
Despite the president’s stings against her, the head of government shows no sign of feverishness. While part of the macronie evokes its fall in the short or medium term, the interested party sweeps “rumors” and projects on the reforms of the months to come. She notably meets unions and employers this Wednesday to discuss the social agenda.
The risk : “Elisabeth Borne is ready to do anything to continue to serve the State, beyond her personal interests. This spirit of sacrifice and this erasure, however, damages its image and risks undermining its authority, which is nevertheless necessary to build its majority in the National Assembly”, assures Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet, professor of political communication at Sciences-Po and president of MCBG. Advice.
Strategy 2: Push
Another possible strategy: try to make yourself indispensable by investing – even saturating – the media space. “Manuel Valls somehow imposed himself in this way in 2014 after the defeat of the presidential camp in the municipal elections. He had campaigned in the media, as a candidacy, and finally convinced François Hollande to appoint him to Matignon. By its popularity, its efficiency, and its baroque political teamwork with Arnaud Montebourg and Benoît Hamon”, recalls Gaspard Gantzer, then head of Elysian communication. This offensive is reminiscent of the strategy put in place in recent days by a certain… Gérald Darmanin. The hypermedia Minister of the Interior, on the front line during the recent urban violence, multiplies the meetings to make himself indispensable to Emmanuel Macron, convinced that his profile would make it possible to widen the presidential majority on the right.
The risk : “Pressuring the president for Matignon can be dangerous. Self-assertion must not turn into aggression against the Head of State. It was the mistake made by Nicolas Sarkozy during Jacques Chirac’s second term, which prevented him from becoming Prime Minister,” says Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet.
Strategy 3: Play the skill
Having a well-filled CV and a nice balance sheet can be very useful when applying for one of the most important positions in France. More than political qualities, the “techno” label also seems to be favored by the Head of State when making his choice. “For Emmanuel Macron, as we have seen, technicality is essential. The profiles appointed to Matignon are also similar: two enarques (Philippe and Castex) and a polytechnician (Borne). As such, Jean Castex had the ideal profile for Macron, very good technically, at the task, but having no chance of overshadowing him, ”says Gaspard Gantzer. The senior official, described as a “Swiss army knife” by his relatives, had also been appointed by the president after having worked on the post-Covid deconfinement plan in the spring of 2020.
The risk : “Emmanuel Macron is rather illustrated by profiles of performers, collaborators, without political weight. But the situation has changed. And for lack of a majority, the president badly needs the right to govern, ”warns Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet. The delicate political context could therefore push the Head of State to need a more political profile to stabilize the beginning of the eventful second five-year term.