Lower Saxony trend: a tight race is emerging

Ten days before the election in Lower Saxony, a tight race is emerging. According to the Lower Saxony trend, the SPD is currently two points ahead of the CDU in the Sunday question. The Greens have the prospect of a record result.

Prime Minister Stephan Weil of the SPD has been in office in Lower Saxony for almost ten years. First he governed with the Greens; then the SPD became the strongest force in the 2017 state elections, but lost its narrow government majority due to the record loss of the Greens at the same time. Since then, the SPD has governed with the CDU. But now the Prime Minister could, according to the current ARD-Select a pre-election poll whether he would like to continue the coalition with the CDU or would rather return to the red-green coalition.

Clear lead for Weil

If the prime minister in Lower Saxony were elected directly, 50 percent would choose the incumbent prime minister, Weil – 28 percent would vote for his current deputy, Bernd Althusmann from the CDU. Both improve by one point here compared to the previous week. One in five (22 percent) doesn’t know or wouldn’t choose either of the two.

SPD just about the strongest force

But despite the sympathy for the SPD incumbent, the two current coalition partners are relatively close on the Sunday issue: If there were a state election next Sunday, the SPD would get 32 ​​percent (unchanged compared to the previous week). This would make it the strongest force again, but it would worsen its position compared to the 2017 election (2017 result: 36.9 percent).

The current coalition partner CDU would come to 30 percent (+2 compared to the previous week). That would be a deterioration compared to the 2017 election result (33.6 percent).

The Greens would currently almost double their result compared to 2017 and would come to 16 percent (result 2017: 8.7 percent). The FDP achieved five percent (result 2017: 7.5 percent) and would thus end up in the five percent hurdle. The AfD currently comes to nine percent (result 2017: 6.2 percent). All other parties account for eight percent, including the Left Party with three percent (result 2017: 4.6 percent).

This survey is expressly not a forecast, but about the political mood in the current week. The Sunday question measures an intermediate status in the opinion-forming process of the electorate, which can only be completed on election Sunday. Conclusions about the outcome of the election are only possible to a limited extent.

More encouragement for SPD-led cabinet

If you ask people in Lower Saxony which party should lead the next state government, 43 percent answer: the SPD. 32 percent want the CDU. A quarter (25 percent) did not specify or have no opinion on the question. A majority of 56 percent is currently satisfied with the work of the state government – three points more than in the previous week. 40 percent are less or not at all satisfied.

With the numbers of the current Sunday question, in addition to a continuation of the grand coalition of SPD and CDU, a new edition of red-green and a CDU-led Jamaica alliance with the Greens and FDP would also be mathematically possible in Lower Saxony. A red-green coalition is rated most positively (39 percent); 32 percent would support a continuation of the incumbent coalition of SPD and CDU. A Jamaica coalition, on the other hand, is only supported by 15 percent of citizens.

Currently not mathematically possible: A coalition of CDU and FDP, which 28 percent think is good, and a coalition of CDU and Greens (20 percent). A traffic light coalition of SPD, Greens and FDP is also popular with 20 percent.