Lower Saxony state election: who chose what and why?

Hardly any other state election has been so shaped by the concerns of the people, hardly any other election campaign has been conducted in such a national political way. Which parties benefited from this? And why? An analysis based on data from infratest dimap.

If you are still looking for evidence of people’s fears in these times, you will find them in abundance in this election: 73 percent of all respondents made themselves loud infratest-dimap-Data major concerns that incomes and wealth are falling. 67 percent of all eligible voters fear that Russian President Vladimir Putin will use nuclear weapons. 60 percent worry that they can no longer pay their bills. And then there are growing fears about climate change (70 percent).

energy and prices

These are turbulent times and there are problems that can hardly be solved at state level alone: ​​issues such as energy supply (27 percent), price increases (19) and climate (17) played the greatest role for voters in Lower Saxony in their voting decision – and this also relatively independent of their party preference.

The view goes from the polls infratest dimap accordingly much more frequently in the direction of Berlin than in other state elections – and shows that in the current crisis situation, trust in politics at the federal level is comparatively low. There are several possible explanations for the fact that the chancellor party SPD became the strongest force in Lower Saxony and was able to increase its gap to the CDU.

The incumbent Prime Minister Stephan Weil is probably the most important reason. 67 percent of respondents describe him as “a good Prime Minister”. These are not absolute top values, such as those achieved by Daniel Günther or Winfried Kretschmann in the elections in Schleswig-Holstein and Baden-Württemberg, but Weil is still in the middle with this value. At the same time, the distance to his opponent Bernd Althusmann is very clear, for example when it comes to the question of the preferred candidate in the theoretical case of a direct election. 53 percent would choose Weil as Prime Minister and only 27 percent for Althusmann. The gap has even widened compared to 2017 (50 versus 35 percent then).

And here it is striking: Even 65 percent of the CDU voters are of the opinion that Weil is a good prime minister. 58 percent of FDP voters also agree.

In addition, dissatisfaction with the government has recently grown rapidly. Compared to the overall mood in Germany, however, it is somewhat less dramatic in Lower Saxony. In Lower Saxony, 54 percent of those questioned stated that they were not satisfied with the federal government.

A narrow majority was still satisfied with the work of the state government – this value was significantly higher for supporters of the Social Democrats than for CDU voters.

Despite the election victory, the SPD had to record losses. It is particularly difficult for young people and workers. The proportion of votes among 18 to 24 year olds fell by twelve percentage points. For blue-collar workers by 13 percentage points.

Weil’s lead

Why Because in the end Althusmann is relatively well ahead, it should also be due to the competence values. In most areas, the CDU is far less likely to be credited with the best solutions than in the last election: the figure for fighting crime fell by twelve percentage points, for securing and creating jobs by eleven and for economic competence by nine points.

Apparently, the CDU can hardly benefit from the dissatisfaction with the federal government at the state level. In any case, CDU leader Friedrich Merz also seems to be polarizing among CDU voters in Lower Saxony. Only 56 percent believe that Merz can lead the party back into the federal government.

The preliminary voter migration also makes it clear that the party has a mobilization problem. Tens of thousands of former CDU voters no longer went to the polls. The party also gave votes to many other parties. She lost voters the most to the AfD.

The AfD also confirms that it can continue to use its policy to mobilize those who are dissatisfied and insecure. And as you know, there are plenty of them. The proportion of people who are very concerned about income, rising prices and migration is particularly high among AfD voters. In addition, 83 percent of those surveyed stated that they were not satisfied with the functioning of democracy in Germany. For comparison: the Greens have just 13 percent.

Competences of the AfD

the infratestHowever, data also show that voters are increasingly ascribed problem-solving skills to the AfD and that it is not elected solely for reasons of protest. In the fields of social justice (up six points), jobs and the economy (up four each) and in the fight against crime (up five percentage points), the party was able to significantly increase its attributions of competence.

The AfD apparently manages to appeal to the younger generation as well. According to preliminary figures, the party is eleven percent of first-time voters and thus ahead of the FDP, which appealed to many young people in previous elections. According to provisional figures, however, the SPD and the Greens were the strongest in this age group in Lower Saxony. The distribution of the age groups also makes it clear that the party was popular with all age groups.

According to preliminary voter migration, the AfD owed most of its vote gains to former voters from the CDU, but also from the FDP and SPD. However, she was also able to mobilize the strongest of the parties represented in the state parliament who had previously not voted.

The Greens are different: As expected, the party is given the greatest powers when it comes to the climate issue. Nevertheless, they lose 18 percentage points in this area compared to 2017. Half of all eligible voters see the Greens as the party that represents values ​​that are important to them personally. Almost half would like the Greens to participate in government and almost as many say the party stands for new beginnings and renewal.

This image – combined with the fact that a red-green coalition achieves the highest approval ratings of all alliance variants surveyed – contributed to the party’s record results in Lower Saxony. The party got the largest share of the vote gains from the CDU and the SPD. The Greens also gained significantly in all age groups. However, the Greens were less able to score points with pensioners, workers and voters with a low level of education, and they can achieve the greatest increases in large cities.

The candidate apparently played only a minor role in the voting decision. Only eleven percent of those who voted said they chose the Greens because of Julia Willie Hamburg, 71 percent justified their decision with the program.

The FDP and the economy

The FDP, on the other hand, has clearly lost just in the economic competence values ​​​​(minus three percentage points). What is striking about the FDP: 32 percent of the FDP eligible voters surveyed are of the opinion that the FDP is doing too little for the economy in the crisis. 59 percent are of the opinion that the federal government does not think enough about the economy when it comes to relief.

In the candidate factor, top candidate Stefan Birkner worsened his result from 2017 again. Since 2013, this value has fallen from 26 percent to 14 percent. The consequence: the party loses votes, most of them to the AfD and the CDU. Some of the former FDP supporters just didn’t go to the polls this time.