Losses in January: bad omen for the stock market year


market report

Status: 01/31/2022 10:31 p.m

As January, so year goes a stock exchange rule. Accordingly, there is a risk of a bad year for stocks. Because in January there were significant price losses. The good end of the month didn’t change that.

Bargain hunters used the recent price setbacks to re-enter Wall Street today. They grabbed tech stocks in particular. The Nasdaq index jumped 3.3 percent to more than 14,000 points at the start of the week. “It’s just a little relief rally after such a sharp sell-off,” said Lindsey Bell, investment specialist at Ally Invest.

Weakest start to the year for the Nasdaq

Nevertheless, the Nasdaq index has made its weakest start to the year to date. The broader S&P 500, which recovered somewhat today, also fell 6.5 percent in January, posting its biggest monthly losses since the coronavirus pandemic-triggered crash in March 2020.

The January losses are a bad omen. An old stock market rule says that the year will be like January. “It means investors are in for a tough year,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.

DAX curbs monthly losses

January was also sobering on the German stock market. On a monthly basis, the DAX lost a good 400 points. After the leading German index had climbed to a record high of 16,271 points in early January, it quickly lost momentum and at times fell back to 15,011 points. Since then he has recovered somewhat, but remains ailing.

At the end of the month, the DAX gained around one percent and closed at 15,471 points. In the morning he had risen even more, but then lost strength. Only thanks to a bit of tailwind from Wall Street did the German stock market barometer rev up.

Inflation higher than expected

The euro rebounded somewhat from its recent losses and broke back above $1.12 today. Consumer prices in Germany, which rose more than expected, supported the euro. In January, the inflation rate fell to 4.9 percent, after having stood at 5.3 percent in December. However, economists had expected a more significant decline to 4.4 percent. “The inflation appears to be more persistent than initially thought, and the European Central Bank (ECB) is under pressure to react even more quickly,” commented Helaba’s economists on the development.

ECB under pressure

“In any case, the central bankers are likely to have some explanations on Thursday.” Then the next interest rate meeting of the ECB is scheduled. On the financial markets, the ECB is expected to raise interest rates this year. Higher interest rates would make the euro more attractive to investors.

“Even in Europe, the era of cheap money could sooner or later be over,” said analyst Christian Henke from brokerage house IG. The central banks of the USA and the euro zone are under pressure because of the upward pressure on prices. Investors fear a stronger tightening of monetary policy than previously assumed. This had recently weighed heavily on the stock markets.

Italy’s bond yields fall

Investors reacted with relief to the re-election of Sergio Mattarella as President of Italy. They grabbed the bonds of the southern European country on Monday, thereby pushing the yield on ten-year titles to 1.294 percent. At the same time, the fear of a payment default disappeared.

Ukraine conflict drives up oil prices

The oil price rose again. Brent from the North Sea rose by more than one percent to $91.05 a barrel (159 liters). The demand continues to exceed supply, as traffic is increasing again, especially in Europe, the analysts at ANZ Bank wrote. At the same time, inventories are low. In the past few weeks, tensions between Russia and Ukraine have fueled speculation about oil supply disruptions.

Gold a little more expensive

Although the gold price continues to suffer from the increased interest rate expectations and the strong dollar, it was able to turn positive during the course of the day. An ounce of gold cost $1,799 today, up 0.3 percent from the day before.

BASF fears that Wintershall Dea will go public

According to a press report, the investment company LetterOne of the Russian billionaire Michail Fridman currently wants to block an IPO of Wintershall Dea by its German partner BASF. The reason is, among other things, the market sentiment towards assets in Russia, where the company does part of its gas and oil production, writes the “Financial Times”.

Telekom boss’s salary under criticism

Politicians of the SPD and the Greens criticize the planned salary increase of Telekom boss Höttges by 300,000 euros. The state is a co-owner of Telekom. Meanwhile, according to a media report, the subsidiary T-Mobile US wants to part with employees if they are not fully vaccinated against Corona by April 2nd.

Siemens Gamesa management under pressure

After Siemens Gamesa’s profit warning, the management around company boss Andreas Nauen is under pressure, according to “Handelsblatt”. The renewed bad news would have consequences, the newspaper quoted from Siemens Energy company circles. Recently, rumors have been circulating on the market that Siemens Energy could take over Siemens Gamesa completely.

Car manufacturer Daimler changes company name

The car manufacturer Daimler AG will officially say goodbye to its company name on Tuesday (February 1) and will then be called Mercedes-Benz Group AG. The CEO, Ola Källenius, thus completes a far-reaching corporate restructuring that began at the end of last year with the spin-off of the truck business from Daimler Truck.

DIC Asset wants to take over VIB Vermögens

The real estate company DIC Asset wants to take over the majority of the real estate holding company VIB Vermögen. The SDAX company wants to offer VIB shareholders EUR 51 per share. No complete takeover is planned, only a partial offer. After completion, DIC Asset intends to hold around 51 percent of the VIB shares.

Tonies exceeds sales forecast

Loudspeaker manufacturer Tonies, known for its children’s musical figures, has seen a jump in sales following its expansion into the USA. In the past fiscal year, revenue rose by 37 percent to EUR 185 million compared to the same period of the previous year, exceeding the Group’s own forecast. The company, which was founded in Düsseldorf, produces not only loudspeakers for children but also small figures from well-known series such as Sesame Street or Paw Patrol.

Sixt complains about bottlenecks in new cars

Germany’s largest car rental company Sixt continues to get fewer new cars than it actually needs. “If we had more cars, we could do significantly more business,” CEO Alexander Sixt told the “Handelsblatt”. “For all market segments, we are assuming the same or increasing market volume in 2022, but with significantly fewer vehicles and with prices tending to rise as a result.”

IG Metall threatens Airbus with a strike

In the conflict over the restructuring of civil aircraft production in Germany, Airbus and IG Metall sat down again at the negotiating table today in Hamburg. If this seventh round of negotiations also fails, the union wants to call on its members to vote on a strike. “The 31st is the deadline,” says IG Metall.

Boeing unveils cargo version of the 777X

According to insiders, the aircraft manufacturer Boeing wants to announce a cargo version of its modernized 777X wide-body jet today. The Arab airline Qatar Airways will sign a contract for 50 machines, the Bloomberg news agency reported. The 777X is the modernized and less fuel-hungry iteration of the Boeing 777, which has brought the company large market shares both as a passenger jet and as a cargo aircraft.

Ryanair is aiming for higher ticket prices in the summer

The budget airline Ryanair relies on higher ticket prices in summer. As many competitors have reduced supply, there could be upward pressure on prices, CFO Neil Sorahan said. But that is not certain yet. In the current quarter, the uncertainty in the corona pandemic is dampening bookings, so that customers may have to be won over by low ticket prices. In the last quarter, Ryanair posted a net loss of 96 million euros, around 70 percent less than in the same period last year.

Spotify takes action against misinformation about Corona

The streaming service Spotify wants in the coming days all posts about Covid-19 will be marked with a note in the future, which is intended to guide users to scientifically sound information from reliable sources. Previously, several artists, including Neil Young and Joni Mitchell, had announced they were pulling their music from Spotify. They are thus protesting against a corona podcast that has been criticized by numerous scientists as trivializing.

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