With 89 deputies, the National Rally comes into force in the Assembly thanks to a demonization that has already proven its worth in the presidential election and the collapse of the “republican frontsupposed to block the extreme right. Its candidate for the Elysée Marine Le Pen, who had already obtained a score never seen in the second round of the presidential election, with 41.5% of the votes, expressed herself on Monday of her “surprisewhen she was hoping for around sixty deputies.
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Without a proportional vote and without alliances, she obtained a group almost three times larger than that which her father had chaired from 1986 to 1988 with 35 deputies. The RN now claims to be the first “left» of opposition to theNational Assembly ahead of rebellious France, which should have between 70 and 80 deputies, and the Republicans (61 deputies). This result, far from the projections of the polling institutes which credited the RN with 20 to 50 seats, is explained in particular by the carryover of votes, which can suddenly bring 30 additional elected officials, explains Brice Teinturier, deputy director general of Ipsos France. In the event of Nupes-RN duels, the voters of the presidential coalition Together! 72% abstained, while 16% voted for the Nupes and 12% for the RN. And “it’s the opposite with the LRs“: 58% stayed at home but 30% voted for the RN and 12% for the Nupes, notes the pollster.
Jean-Daniel Lévy, of the Harris Interactive Institute, also sees a “double phenomenon: abstentionwhich aims not to obstruct the RN, but also transfers of votes from the first round to the second round, which are not only RN voters“. “The absence of clear voting instructions from Ensemble! did not allow the Republican dam to fully function” after “the ”ni-ni” of the Sarkozy right (who) had already dug the first breaches“Explains for France Info Gilles Ivaldi, researcher at the CNRS and Cevipof, specialist in the economic program of the RN. The researcher puts forward three other explanations: an RN campaign “discreet and furtive, but on a theme that was at the heart of the concerns of the French: purchasing power”, a “strategy of demonizing the RN which has never had so many effects”, and frames “who have managed to anchor themselves locally“.