Ukraine is again expecting targeted Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure. People feel better prepared than last winter. But the technology is weak, experts warn.
Maria Romanjuk points to the corner of the small kitchen, then to the ceiling. Extra lighting hangs there, powered by a generator, and there is a gas stove and a gas bottle in the corner. The 32-year-old has prepared the kitchen in her small restaurant for what is now the third winter of war in Kiev.
Ukrainian intelligence warns of renewed waves of Russian attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure. In September, the power went out for several hours after an attack in Rivne, central Ukraine.
Everyday life with power outages that last for hours
Last year, according to the Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Office, Russia fired missiles and drones at substations, transformers and heating plants 255 times. As a result, there were interruptions in electricity and water supplies for hours in many parts of the country. Heating or the internet often didn’t work either.
“That was difficult. We didn’t know what we were supposed to do. How we were even supposed to work like that,” says Romanjuk about the time when people in Ukraine suddenly had to learn how to live their everyday lives without the internet, running water, heating and most of all without having to supply electricity. This winter, however, Ukrainians feel better prepared.
Entrepreneurs have prepared
Like Maria Romanjuk, restaurant owners and retailers have equipped their businesses with generators, batteries and space heaters. Many people also hoard tap water in case, for example, the toilet flushes no longer work. “If we don’t have electricity, the ventilation in the kitchen doesn’t work. So we have to open the window and work in the cold. But at least we work,” says Romanjuk.
And that is important for small businesses. Romanjuk runs a total of two restaurants in Kiev. She opened the second just a few months before the Russian attacks on the substations and heating systems began. She says she did not receive any financial aid from the state. Like many others, she had to finance the generators and the gas stove from her reserves. The worries about next winter still remain. “We don’t know what to expect,” says Romanjuk.
System resilience decreased significantly
The number of visitors fell by 50 percent last winter. Because Maria Romanyuk’s café is located in a residential complex in the west of Kiev. Many of the buildings have up to 20 floors. If the power goes out here, the elevators won’t work either. And so many guests initially stayed away, she explains.
Energy expert Oleksandr Kharchenko is also worried. “The energy infrastructure is no longer as resilient as it was last year,” he says. Where a substation had three transformers last winter, today there are at best two and at worst only one. That means there are no more reserves, explains Kharchenko. And deliveries of new replacement transformers from the West are only expected in the coming weeks and months.
More Air defense needed
“The good thing is that if our technology is destroyed by the Russians, then at least we have replacements.” But replacing a damaged transformer takes up to two weeks from a technical perspective alone. And due to the damage from last year, it is no longer possible to switch to reserve transformers in many places. These are already in use and are currently enabling Ukraine to supply people with the electricity they need.
This makes air defense all the more important, says Oleksandr Kharchenko. “The only thing that can help in time now are ‘cheetahs’ and other air defense assets.” The German anti-aircraft tank ‘Gepard’ has proven itself to be extremely effective in defending against drones over the past year. But in addition, Ukraine has developed other passive protection mechanisms.
Worldwide unique protection system
Sandbags and gabions are intended to help against pressure waves and flying debris. In addition, huge, net-like structures around and above the substations are intended to intercept drones. However, it is not known to what extent these protective mechanisms really work. “The protective walls made of gabions and sandbags have already proven to be very effective,” says Kharchenko.
Volodymyr Kudrytskyj, head of the state grid operator Ukrenergo, speaks to the Ukrainian media about a unique protection system. “Certain protective mechanisms have not yet been used worldwide because no one has ever been exposed to such a threat.”
Special equipment and spare parts required
Ukraine is currently not planning any planned power shutdowns like last year. “But if the Russians strike, we will act according to the situation,” Kudrytskyj was quoted as saying in the Ukrainian media. The planned and often hour-long shutdowns were necessary last year to resolve distribution problems resulting from the attacks. Ukrainians were able to find out online when the electricity in their homes should be turned on or off.
In addition to more air defense systems and ammunition, Ukraine needs spare parts, transformers and massive generators to supply entire city blocks with electricity. “Guys, please don’t send blankets or clothes,” says expert Kharchenko. Humanitarian aid in this form is well-intentioned, but ineffective. “We need special equipment and spare parts.”
More than 480 settlements without electricity
Romanyuk hopes that the possible attacks and their consequences will not be so devastating this winter. “But you never know. Maybe new problems will arise this winter.”
The situation in the capital is relatively comfortable. However, according to Ukrenergo, more than 480 settlements in the frontline areas are completely cut off from electricity due to the war. Because of the ongoing fighting, supplies cannot be restored in many places.