The FDP is meeting for its federal party conference this weekend. There was already talk of a possible traffic light shutdown after the FDP had used striking words to call for an economic turnaround. But what options does the party have?
In business, strategic decisions are often made with the help of game theory. The idea: You try to act as optimally as possible by making assumptions about the reactions of others, for example the reactions of customers or competitors.
This basic idea can also be transferred to politics, says Christian Rusche from the German Economic Institute (IW). Parties will also take into account how political competitors and voters react to their own decisions. Or how you can expand your own possibilities.
Bargaining power wanted
Rusche points to coalition negotiations as an example. Parties that keep more alternatives open when forming a government can increase their own negotiating power. Like after the federal election in September 2021: By joining forces – keyword selfie – the Liberals and Greens were able to appear stronger against the SPD.
Or you go back to 1982, when the FDP left the social-liberal government under Helmut Schmidt and made it possible for Helmut Kohl to become chancellor. At that time, the Bundestag only consisted of the CDU/CSU, FDP and SPD factions. And since the major parties needed the FDP to form a government due to the lack of an absolute majority, the FDP was in a strong position. At the time she was dubbed the “kingmaker”.
Historical parallel to the appearance of today’s FDP?
Some observers have compared the FDP’s situation in recent weeks with that of 1982. At that time, an economic policy paper, which came primarily from the then Economics Minister Otto Graf Lambsdorff, led to the breakup of the social-liberal coalition.
When the FDP published its twelve points calling for corrections to citizens’ money and the abolition of the so-called “pension at 63”, the question quickly arose: Is this the new “Lambsdorff paper”? Will this herald the end of the traffic light coalition?
Expert: FDP is currently not a “kingmaker”
According to the IW economist Rusche, the times are not comparable: While the FDP was actually the “kingmaker” in 1982, if it left the coalition today it would shoot itself into political oblivion – due to the lack of political alternatives.
A switch to the Union would only work together with the Greens. Such a Jamaica coalition, which failed in 2017 due to Christian Lindner’s withdrawal from the negotiations (it was better not to govern than to govern badly, was Lindner’s argument at the time), would not only be difficult because of differences in content.
From a game theory perspective, the main question is what interest the Union should have in quickly taking over government – i.e. what the reaction of the political “fellow player” looks like. Both CDU leader Friedrich Merz and CSU leader Markus Söder have clearly expressed their preference for new elections – probably not least because of favorable survey results.
Are new elections an option for the FDP?
A constructive vote of no confidence like the one in 1982 with the election of Helmut Kohl is out of the question. But what about leaving the traffic lights, as almost half of those involved demanded in an FDP member survey? A departure of the FDP ministers from the government would probably result in a vote of confidence in the Bundestag and subsequent new elections.
“But these would also pose a great risk for the FDP,” says Professor Marc Debus from the University of Mannheim. The political scientist points to surveys that only see the Liberals at four to five percent – a failure at the five percent hurdle would therefore not be ruled out.
The FDP is in a dilemma
Debus speaks of a dilemma for the FDP: On the one hand, it is clear that the traffic light is unpopular among its own supporters. On the other hand, staying in the traffic lights is the “dominant” strategy for the Liberals: i.e. the strategy that, from the FDP’s point of view, is still the best alternative, despite all the difficulties.
This leaves the party only with the opportunity to make a name for itself programmatically within the traffic light. The FDP can speculate that in the year and a half until the federal election in autumn 2025, topics will come onto the agenda from which the party could benefit in terms of the mood among the population, according to political scientist Debus.
Focus on economic and social policy
This applies primarily to the issue of economic and social policy, which party leader and Finance Minister Lindner has been highlighting for weeks with his call for an “economic turnaround”. Of course, this means that the FDP is encountering partners who – strategically speaking – are also under pressure. In the event of new elections, the SPD in particular would have to expect severe losses compared to the 2021 federal election.
Debus therefore expects that the SPD will also make a name for itself, especially in the area of economic and social policy: “This will ultimately lead to arguments and discussions in the coalition, which may then have a negative impact on the assessment of the coalition and the coalition parties affects voters.”
The recent discussions on the FDP’s 12-point paper on economic and social policy could therefore only be the prelude to further conflicts in the traffic light: cooperative behavior, which game theory also knows as a possible option, does not currently appear to be for the parties involved to be the optimal option.