analysis
Status: 01/23/2023 5:35 p.m
The lack of understanding about the German restraint with the “Leopard” tanks is growing. Decisions are made in the Chancellery – but there is hardly any communication. Why doesn’t Scholz explain his stance?
For weeks and months, parliamentarians from the traffic light, supported by Union MPs, have been campaigning regularly for tank deliveries. Their roles in the Bundestag are not insignificant. It’s not the backbenchers who are putting pressure on here.
The Chair of the Defense Committee, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, FDP, always advocates broader support for Ukraine. The chairman of the European Committee, Anton Hofreiter from the Greens, also. And the chairman of the foreign affairs committee, the SPD politician Michael Roth, is also in favor of tank deliveries. In addition, there is the Union as the strongest opposition force, which is also promoting tank deliveries.
The chancellery decides
They all have a lot of public attention, but their political impact has so far been manageable. Because decisions are made solely in the Chancellery. The new Defense Minister Boris Pistorius recently said so in the ARD-Show “Anne Will” clarified.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz has so far given no indication that he is in any way impressed by the political and media pressure. When asked regularly, he stoically repeats his well-known attitude – most recently in the Élysée Palace in Paris. Scholz wants to continue to coordinate action with the United States on the tank issue – in lockstep.
Biden, Scholz and Macron – the decision makers
It seems unusual for Western democracies, but the decision on the tank question is aimed at the top political powers. Rarely is politics so focused on individuals. To deliver or not – the heads of government alone decide that. Even if there are defense ministers and security cabinets and the political systems are different.
Nevertheless, in the end it is US President Joe Biden, Chancellor Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron who must take responsibility. They weigh the costs and benefits of dealing with nuclear power Russia. They decide whether or not a red line could be crossed with battle tank aid to Ukraine. They need to consider whether Western main battle tanks could be a red rag for Putin in Crimea, where Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is based. Even if Crimea is part of Ukraine.
Transatlantic solidarity
With the start of the Ukraine war, the German government quickly gave up the principle of not supplying heavy weapons to war zones. From anti-tank weapons to anti-tank howitzers to rocket launchers and armored personnel carriers, further German decisions were always taken in convoy with the USA. Other, smaller countries have followed.
Scholz has demonstratively sought to close ranks with Biden, whom he apparently trusts. The 80-year-old has been there for a long time and still knows the real political rules of the Cold War.
The coordinated and unified action of the western allies was always noticeable in the procedure. No country has advanced alone with arms deliveries and has exposed itself to Putin’s Russia with particularly far-reaching deliveries and thus made itself vulnerable. Together we increased the pressure.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has always had to weigh up whether Western arms deliveries would actually justify an extension of the conflict to NATO. The Europeans are aware that they cannot stand alone against Putin’s nuclear arsenal. And Chancellor Scholz regularly tries to involve the Americans as the most important and strongest allies in Europe.
Poland’s constant criticism of the federal government
Government circles say that at last Friday’s Ramstein conference there were only a few countries that were willing to single-handedly deliver Leopard tanks to Ukraine. Only the Polish government stood out with this project.
However, she has not yet submitted an official application for an export license to the federal government. But that would be necessary if Poland wanted to hand over German-made “Leopard” tanks to the Ukraine. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced today that such a permit would be applied for. However, he did not give a timetable.
Constant bluffs
In view of constant bluffs and announcements by the right-wing conservative PiS government in Poland, it is at least not surprising that Foreign Minister Baerbock at least indicated on French television that she would not oppose such “Leopard” deliveries. The federal government announced that it would process a possible Polish application for the supply of “Leopard” tanks accurately and at the same time quickly. But it doesn’t exist yet.
With the Polish “Leopard” announcements, one must not forget that in Poland there will be elections in the fall. Accusing Germany of constantly hesitant action could also be based on this.
The communication dilemma
The criticism from Poland, from traffic lights and the opposition also comes because the federal government does not communicate openly. What is the strategic approach, what goals is Germany pursuing in the Ukraine war? Nobody really knows.
The Chancellor keeps repeating his position on the tank issue, but he hasn’t really explained it. Scholz wants to hold all the trumps in his hand and not let his cards look at him. The process is going better, “the less public it is,” says his government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit.
Such statements also show that the tricky question of tanks is weighed up and decided in a very small circle.