Status: 03/10/2022 10:20 a.m
The federal government has set ambitious goals for the railways: a doubling of passenger kilometers and 25 percent more rail transport by 2030. How is this supposed to succeed?
The climate goals of the new federal government are ambitious. The transport sector should also finally play its part in reducing CO2. According to the Federal Environment Agency, in 2020 the CO2 emissions of the transport sector amounted to 147 million tons of CO2. Emissions are to be reduced to a maximum of 85 million tons by 2030. Since significantly less CO2 is emitted in rail transport than when driving a car or transporting goods by truck, the CO2 reduction should also be achieved by shifting to rail.
Deutsche Bahn 2030: Germany clock in stuttering mode?
Inga Thiede, WDR, Plusminus, March 9th, 2022
Deutschlandtakt aims to make rail travel modern
Even the old federal government decided that the trains should eventually run in the so-called Germany cycle. This means that all trains should run every half hour between the big cities and every hour between the medium-sized centers. Deutsche Bahn has a record budget of 13.6 billion euros at its disposal this year for the implementation of the goals. But the Pro-Rail Alliance criticizes that not a single infrastructure measure is currently being planned for the future Germany cycle. And Lukas Iffländer from the Pro Bahn passenger association estimates that there could easily be more than ten years between the start of planning and the moment the train rolls.
An example: One of the main routes for the realization of the Germany cycle between the Ruhr area and Berlin is the Hanover-Bielefeld route. A new line for a high-speed train has to be built here. But Iffländer warns: “In a perfect world, we might be able to talk about 2028, that the excavator is rolling, and that’s easily four more years of construction time. That means we’re moving towards the mid-2030s the optimistic view. And if citizens’ initiatives then shoot across the board, it can take much longer.”
Passengers are more likely to be frightened
The tasks of the railway are huge. Since 1994, 6,000 kilometers of rail have been dismantled, so much has to be reactivated. In addition to the conversions for the Germany cycle, 75 percent of the rails should also be electrified by 2030. Today it is just 62 percent. For this, 500 kilometers of rail would have to be electrified every year – under the old federal government it was an average of 65 per year, according to the Pro-Rail Alliance.
The result of all these measures: construction sites – which in turn scare passengers because they can lead to delays. Last year, every fourth long-distance train was delayed, to the displeasure of travelers. According to Iffländer, it must be prevented that badly done construction sites result in more passengers migrating than could be gained after the construction measures. “If suddenly there is rail replacement traffic everywhere, then half the passengers are gone. Then we have not doubled the number of passengers, but achieved the exact opposite.”
Bahn goals too ambitious
Even Klaus-Dieter Hommel, the Deutsche Bahn supervisory board member and EVG union leader, is skeptical as to whether the coalition’s goals can be achieved. “The planning horizon to fulfill all these things, both the maintenance and the modernization of the infrastructure, including the digital rail, the use of modern means, artificial intelligence, up to the implementation of the Germany clock – I’m pretty sure will pass the next 30 years,” says Hommel.
Even the new railway officer, Michael Theurer, is not convinced that the goals he has set himself are achievable. “That’s absolutely squaring the circle. In some places you can’t prevent things from having to get worse before they can get better,” says the FDP politician. “So: The entire Germany cycle cannot be implemented by 2030. But it would be wrong to say that it won’t work anyway,” says Theurer in an interview with the ARD business magazine Plus minus.
In order to achieve the goals after all, the Pro-Rail Alliance is demanding three billion euros a year for new construction and expansion. However, the federal government is assuming two billion euros.