Published on Oct 15, 2023 at 9:26 p.m.Updated Oct 16, 2023 at 6:38
It is a victory that will be greeted with joy and relief in most European capitals, if confirmed. Exit polls show that political change is in sight in Poland, Sunday evening when the polling stations close.
Pro-European opposition parties would come out on top after the legislative elections, ending eight years of government by the nationalist and ultra-conservative Law and Justice party (PiS in Polish) of Jaroslaw Kaczynski and Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki .
The PiS has violently opposed European institutions in recent years on environmental and migration policies in particular. And Brussels has blocked the payment of European funds pending reforms that Warsaw is reluctant to implement to guarantee the independence of the Polish judicial system.
The return of Donald Tusk
The three opposition parties, the Civic Platform (center right) of Donald Tusk, the centrists of Third Way and the Left party, would together win 248 seats in the lower house of parliament which has 460 deputies, against 212 seats for the PiS and Confederation (far right) combined.
Donald Tusk, 66, who was already Prime Minister from 2007 to 2014, then President of the Council of the European Union from 2014 to 2019, would therefore be able to form a government, if this result were confirmed. “Exit polls have always been reliable in Poland until now,” underlines Urszula Krassowska, of the Opinia24 polling institute.
“It’s the end of PiS’s reign”
“This is the end of PiS’s reign,” Donald Tusk declared on Sunday evening. “Poland won, democracy won, we kicked them out of power […] It’s the end of this bad period.”
Donald Tusk promised to improve Poland’s relations with the European Union. He also pledged to restore the right to abortion, drastically restricted under the PiS government.
The victory of the pro-European opposition in Poland marks a halt to the rise of Eurosceptic populist parties in Central Europe, a few days after Robert Fico came to power in neighboring Slovakia.
Coalition
According to the Ipsos exit poll, the PiS would have come in first with 37% of the votes, or seven points less than during the previous legislative elections, in 2019. This score is insufficient compared to the three opposition parties Civic Platform (32% , + 5 points), Third Way (13%) and The Left (9%), which, together, would obtain an absolute majority in the chamber.
The far right of the Confederation would come in fifth position with 6% of the vote, a score significantly lower than what the last polls predicted before the election.
Right to abortion
The three opposition parties have committed to joining forces to form a coalition. “We will sit down to discuss and we will certainly reach an agreement,” assured Donald Tusk on Sunday evening.
The participation, close to 73%, “is the highest in the history of democratic Poland”, notes Urszula Krassowska. “The campaign was very brutal and polarized, the mobilization was strong on both sides,” she explains.