Last day of mock referendums: annexation already on Friday?

Today is the last day of mock referendums in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories. It is unclear what will happen after that. British intelligence services assume that Putin will announce the annexation as early as Friday.

In the Russian-held areas of Ukraine, today is the last day for mock referendums aimed at Russia’s annexation of the Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions. How exactly the day should run and what follows afterwards is unclear. Reports from news agencies say that the mock referendums are to continue until 3 p.m. CEST in the afternoon. The RIA news agency reports that the occupation authorities could report the first alleged results in the evening.

The sham referendums – which call for the Ukrainian regions to join the Russian Federation – have been criticized as breaching international law. They are not recognized worldwide because they are held in violation of Ukrainian and international laws and without minimum democratic standards.

Threats of violence and intimidation

It is expected that the occupiers’ approval for joining the Russian Federation will be between 80 and 90 percent. According to Russian information, participation is high. There have been a number of reports of voting taking place under threats of violence and intimidation. Representatives of the occupation authorities had gone door to door collecting votes. According to observers, they were often accompanied by Russian armed forces.

According to estimates by British intelligence services, Russian President Vladimir Putin could formally announce the annexation of the areas in eastern and southern Ukraine in a speech to the Russian parliament on Friday. The Russian leadership wanted to justify the war of aggression in front of their own people. Any announcement of annexation of the territories will serve to justify Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine and aim to cement patriotic support for the conflict, according to a briefing by the UK Defense Ministry.

Still three million inhabitants?

Before the start of the “referendums,” Putin had emphasized that attempts to retake areas after an annexation would be viewed as an attack on their own national territory. Therefore, they would also be defended “with all available means”. This implicitly means the use of nuclear weapons.

It is unclear how many people still live in the affected regions. Before the war began, there were about eight million. However, many of them fled the fighting. The Ukrainian political scientist Volodomyr Sonyuk estimates that there are still two to three million people in the occupied territories, but there are no reliable figures.

Russian reservists “cannon fodder”

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has criticized the partial mobilization ordered by the Kremlin as senseless and cynical. Russia’s move is nothing more than an “attempt to provide local commanders with a steady stream of cannon fodder,” Zelensky said.

Although the senselessness of the war for Russia is obvious and the occupiers have lost the initiative, the Russian military leadership is still sending soldiers to their deaths. “They felt they were going to lose. And they’re just trying to delay this moment in order to at least have some activity on the front lines,” Zelenskyy continued in his daily video address.

Continued fighting in Donbass

Around seven months after the war began, Putin ordered the partial mobilization of reservists last Wednesday. Since then, there has been horror in many places in Russia. There are protests across the country. There have also been several attacks on conscription centers.

Zelenskyy also referred to Russian attempts to break through the Ukrainian defense lines in the eastern Ukrainian industrial region of Donbass. Complete conquest of the region is seen as a key objective of Moscow’s war of aggression. According to the Ukrainian military leadership, their own troops would continue to hold the Russian units in check along the front line there.