Status: 09.09.2021 1:44 p.m.
Laschet has made it clear that he wants to move to Berlin with the general election. But what if there is not enough for the NRW Prime Minister for the Chancellery? These scenarios are possible.
Scenario 1: Laschet becomes chancellor
The declared goal of Armin Laschet is: The Union wins the election and he becomes Chancellor. To do this, however, he would have to make a remarkable comeback in the last few weeks of the election campaign. In the youngest ARD Germany trend the CDU / CSU is only 20 percent, while the SPD is 25 percent. For the Union a real crash, for the SPD a flight of highs. For comparison: On July 23, the Union was 29 percent in the Infratest-dimap Sunday question, the SPD was 16 percent.
In the ranking of satisfaction, Laschet currently ranks ninth behind the Greens’ candidate for chancellor Annalena Baerbock. He had to accept a loss of 13 percentage points compared to the previous survey.
Scenario 2: Laschet becomes Vice Chancellor and Minister
It is conceivable that Armin Laschet missed the entry into the Chancellery, but managed to lead the CDU as a junior partner into a coalition with a respectable result. According to the current status of the surveys, a so-called Germany coalition consisting of the SPD, CDU and FDP would arithmetically come into question.
In this alliance, Laschet could take on a ministerial office in the government and possibly the post of Vice Chancellor. So the role currently held by the SPD chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz.
But is a respectable result really enough for Laschet to become a minister? To end up in second place behind the SPD would mean a serious election defeat for the Union. The resentment in the Union would be great and could discharge under pressure on Laschet not to join the government.
Scenario 3: Laschet becomes opposition leader
Laschet repeatedly asserts that he wants to go to Berlin even in the event of an election defeat. If the Union does not make it into the government, then the parliamentary group chairmanship in the Bundestag would be the most important post within the CDU / CSU that is available. The person who will lead the Union into the next federal election campaign in four years’ time could make a name for himself here.
It is questionable whether a sensitively decimated CDU parliamentary group would choose the candidate at its head who has just entered a historic defeat. It is possible that completely different people would then resort to the leadership of the parliamentary group. For example Friedrich Merz, who led the parliamentary group from 2000 to 2002, Jens Spahn or the current group chairman Ralph Brinkhaus.
Then there is the question: will Laschet even make it into the Bundestag? That is not certain, because to the surprise of many, he had renounced a direct candidacy in his constituency in Aachen. Now Laschet can only move into the Bundestag as the top candidate on the NRW state list. Since the CDU traditionally wins many direct mandates, it is not entirely unlikely that this list will not be used at all. And without Laschet’s mandate in the Bundestag, speculation about the parliamentary group chairmanship would be superfluous anyway.
Depending on the extent of the electoral defeat, it would certainly be difficult for Laschet to remain in the office of CDU federal chairman. It is quite conceivable that the CDU will then have to redefine the chairmanship for the third time within just three years.
Scenario 4: Laschet remains Prime Minister in North Rhine-Westphalia
Shortly after Laschet was chosen as candidate for chancellor of the Union parties, he emphasized that in the event of a defeat, he wanted to remain Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia. He called this “lived state practice” and referred to role models such as Johannes Rau (SPD), Franz-Josef Strauss and Edmund Stoiber (both CSU). After unsuccessful candidates for chancellor they remained in their office as prime minister.
However, the fact that voters do not always like these half-hearted steps was shown, among other things, by the failure of Norbert Röttgen in the state election campaign in 2012. The then Federal Environment Minister only wanted to come to Düsseldorf as Prime Minister, but preferred to remain Minister in Berlin in the event of a defeat. Then he lost the election with a crash – and on top of that he lost his office as Federal Minister because he opposed Merkel’s wish that he should lead the opposition in Düsseldorf.
So was it an act of political reason or real conviction when Laschet, early in the current Bundestag election campaign, went over to emphasizing that he was definitely going to Berlin, in whatever office?
Laschet has left at least a theoretical back door open through his party congress strategy as NRW state chairman: because the NRW CDU will only decide on Laschet’s successor as chairman of the state CDU and as prime minister after the federal election. Parts of the regional association have unsuccessfully pressed for a decision before the federal election.
But could Laschet really just go on like this in NRW as a possibly crushing loser in the election? That is at least questionable. State elections in North Rhine-Westphalia are due to take place in May. Whoever succeeds Laschet would more easily go into the election campaign with an office bonus. The most likely candidate in the current legislative period would be NRW Transport Minister Hendrik Wüst. He has the necessary state parliament mandate to be elected Prime Minister. If the decision was not made until after the state elections in May, the cards would be reshuffled. Then Ina Scharrenbach, building minister in the current cabinet, would also have a chance. You are also said to have ambitions.
Scenario 5: Laschet stops
Finally, the question remains whether it is also conceivable that the 60-year-old will withdraw from politics after an election defeat. And maybe become active in a completely different area. In addition to the classic alternatives – switching to business, managing foundations or federal authorities – there are also unusual ways. Annette Schavan (CDU) chose one of them.
After she resigned as Federal Minister of Education in 2013 due to proven plagiarism, she became German Ambassador to the Vatican. The deeply religious Catholic Laschet, who was editor-in-chief of the “Aachener Kirchenzeitung” in the 1990s, has already visited the Pope several times. The most recent visit was a year ago, in September 2020.