Pioneering choice
Türkiye votes on President and Parliament
Supporters of Turkish President Erdogan shout slogans at an election campaign rally. photo
© Emrah Gurel/AP/dpa
The atmosphere before the elections in Turkey has recently become more and more tense. The vote is indicative. For the first time in 20 years, Erdogan is not going into the race as a favourite.
Turkey is facing a landmark election: around 61 million people are called on Sunday to vote for a new parliament and a president. Incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan has to worry about his re-election after 20 years in power. Polls predict a neck-and-neck race with his challenger, opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Reliable results are expected late on Sunday evening German time.
The election takes place in a tense atmosphere. Recently, concerns had been raised that Erdogan might not accept defeat. On Friday, however, the President declared that he would definitely accept the result.
Since the introduction of a presidential system five years ago, the 69-year-old Erdogan has had more power than ever before and can largely rule without parliament. Critics fear that the country with around 85 million inhabitants could slide completely into autocracy if he wins again. The vote in the NATO country is also being closely observed internationally.
“The elections in Turkey are probably the last chance for the opposition to beat Erdogan democratically after 20 years,” said SPD foreign policy expert Michael Roth to the editorial network Germany (RND).
Kilicdaroglu (74) is head of the social-democratic CHP and is a candidate for an alliance of six parties. He wants to go back to the parliamentary system. The third candidate, Sinan Ogan, has no chance of winning. If none of the candidates wins an absolute majority in the first round, there will be a runoff on May 28th.
Erdogan’s Islamic conservative AKP currently holds a majority in parliament in alliance with the ultra-nationalist MHP. Whether Erdogan can keep this is open. The pro-Kurdish HDP is seen as tipping the scales. She is not part of Kilicdaroglu’s six-party alliance, but supports him in the presidential election.
The outcome of the vote in the provinces affected by the earthquake was eagerly awaited. After the earthquake on February 6th, which killed tens of thousands, criticism of the government’s crisis management was raised.
The election campaign was considered unfair, mainly because of the government’s superior media power. The determining topic was above all the poor economic situation with massive inflation. Erdogan promised, among other things, an increase in civil servants’ salaries and further investments in the defense industry. He ran an aggressive campaign, calling the opposition “terrorists” and hostile to lesbian, gay and queer people.
A popular opposition politician had been stoned just a week before the election. Kilicdaroglu wore a bulletproof vest during a performance in the Erdogan stronghold of Samsun on Friday.
Kilicdaroglu is considered a level-headed politician. He comes from the eastern Turkish province of Tunceli and belongs to the Alevi religious minority. The opposition leader wants to restore the independence of institutions like the central bank and get inflation under control. He stands for a rapprochement with Germany and the EU, but also for a stricter migration policy.
There is hardly a top politician in the EU and NATO who would regret a change of power in Ankara. Relations have been icy ever since Erdogan used the attempted coup in 2016 as an excuse to restrict fundamental rights and had opposition figures and journalists imprisoned. The EU put the EU accession negotiations and talks about expanding the existing customs union on hold. Everything can only get better with Kilicdaroglu, is the prevailing opinion in Brussels.
In the traffic light coalition, one is also cautious behind closed doors. Even if the Kilicdaroglu alliance wins, it remains to be seen how the different partners will come together in terms of content. This also applies to major issues such as Turkey’s attitude towards Russia, the enforcement of sanctions or how to deal with the refugees.
Erdogan’s Islamic conservative AKP came to power in 2002. A year later, Erdogan became prime minister and has been president since 2014. In his first years of government, Erdogan was considered a reformer and ensured an economic upswing. Erdogan has now rolled back many of his own reforms. Erdogan had the government-critical Gezi protests, which will be celebrated for the tenth time in two weeks, put down.
The parliamentary and presidential elections would normally have taken place in June. However, Erdogan had brought it forward to May 14 by presidential decree. Election observers from the OSCE and the Council of Europe follow the voting.