Political Brussels is looking forward to the summer break, but the crises that are shaking the European Union do not take vacations – and therefore nobody can rule out the possibility of an extraordinary EU summit of heads of state and government in Brussels in the summer. It’s about the question of how the EU will get through next winter without Russian gas in solidarity. There is considerable resistance to the emergency plan that Ursula von der Leyen presented as Commission President this week. The dispute must be cleared up as soon as possible, especially since it harbors dangerous potential for populism along the lines of: Germany against the rest of Europe.
The Commission wants to oblige all 27 member countries to reduce their gas consumption by 15 percent between August 2022 and March 2023 compared to the average of the past five years. In an emergency, the Brussels authorities should even be given the right to order the countries to save. Both the Brussels savings target and the Brussels compulsion to save are controversial. The diplomats representing the 27 governments in Brussels are now struggling to find compromises. But it is questionable whether they will find an agreement before the ministers responsible for energy issues meet in Brussels on Tuesday.
At the meeting, a qualified majority is required to pass the Commission’s proposal, which means 15 states would have to agree and they would have to represent at least 65 percent of the EU population. At the first presentation of the Commission’s plan in Brussels, ten countries expressed a fundamentally positive attitude. However, it is difficult to imagine that on such a crucial issue, decisions would be made not only against the usual dissenters Poland and Hungary, who do not want to give the Commission additional powers, but also against the southern European countries.
The Greeks remember the austerity dictates during the euro crisis
Greek Energy Minister Kostas Skrekas said he found it “strange” that the Commission presented the proposal without consulting governments. 70 percent of the natural gas imported into Greece would go into power generation. Savings would therefore jeopardize the supply of households and shops. In addition, a 15 percent saving in Greece does not mean that you can direct 15 percent more to Germany, there are no pipelines for it.
Greeks should save so that the Germans can get through the winter despite their self-inflicted dependence on Russian gas: the Greek government probably wants to avoid this impression, in memory of the euro crisis, when the Germans imposed brutal austerity measures on the Greeks. Such concerns are also likely to play a role in Spain and Portugal.
She “deeply regrets” having to reject the Commission’s proposal, said Teresa Ribera, Spain’s minister in charge of ecological transition. She announced that she would present alternatives to the Council of Ministers on Tuesday. The minister left no doubt about her country’s solidarity, as large quantities of the imported gas are passed on. But she also explained: “Unlike other countries, we Spaniards have not lived beyond our means in terms of energy.” João Galamba, the state secretary responsible for the environment and energy in Portugal, argues in a similar way: his country consumes gas out of sheer necessity, and the savings ordered by the commission would jeopardize the electricity supply.
One country gives up anyway
In the negotiations, the federal government will point out that anyone who decides on sanctions together must also bear the consequences together and that other countries are also suffering from the gas emergency. All governments should also be aware that if Germany slides into an economic crisis, it will affect the whole EU. Nobody knows whether a compromise can be found on this basis at ministerial level or whether the bosses have to cope with this stress test for Europe. Especially since it is unclear how the Italian government, which is currently being dissolved, will behave.
At least one thing seems clear: the Hungarian government will not conform to a system of European solidarity. Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó traveled to Moscow on behalf of Viktor Orbán on Thursday. He wanted to ask there for additional gas supplies for his country.