Since the beginning of the year, North Korea’s dictator Kim Jong Un has missed no opportunity to prove that he is not afraid of military conflict. Some experts say it’s more than just the usual saber rattling.
Few Western observers know North Korea as well as the two Americans Siegfried Hecker and Robert Carlin. Hecker was allowed to inspect North Korean nuclear facilities in the early 2000s. Carlin visited the closed country at the head of international delegations.
It is worrying to find out how the two renowned experts assess the current situation.
“As dangerous as it has been since 1950”
The situation is more dangerous than it has been since 1950, write Hecker and Carlin in an article on the expert platform 38 North. You are drawing a direct comparison to the Korean War, which cost millions of lives from 1950 to 1953. Hecker and Carlin are convinced:
Kim Jong Un made the strategic decision to go to war.
Disturbing signals
In fact, the ruler in Pyongyang has been sending disturbing signals since the beginning of the year. He tested new cruise missiles four times in just ten days. North Korea calls them “strategic,” implying that they are capable of nuclear weapons.
It is rehearsing war with target practice dangerously close to the disputed maritime border west of the peninsula. Accompanied by a frightening rhetorical fire on the neighbors in South Korea. “Enemy state number 1” is what North Korean propaganda now calls South Korea.
In order to make the break visible to everyone, Kim also had the reunification monument in the northern capital torn down. It was once a monumental symbol of rapprochement built by his own grandfather, Kim Il Sung. Today there is an empty square in Pyongyang, satellite images show.
“North Korea is strengthening readiness for war”
Eric Ballbach, North Korea expert at the Science and Politics Foundation in Berlin, also sees cause for concern. In his opinion, questioning the foundations of the inter-Korean relationship is one of Kim Jong Un’s most far-reaching political decisions. The intention behind this is to strengthen one’s own position of power by demarcating itself from the south.
Militarily, the regime is working to make its nuclear weapons arsenal more diverse and flexible. Different carrier systems are being tested for this purpose: “North Korea is clearly strengthening its own country’s readiness for war,” analyzes Ballbach.
In the near future, Ballbach also expects so-called tactical nuclear weapons, suitable for use over shorter distances. This brings with it the horrific vision of a nuclear war on the border between North and South Korea. The metropolis of Seoul, with almost ten million inhabitants, is only about 50 kilometers south of this border.
North Korea cannot win the war
But with a direct attack on South Korea, Kim would provoke the US backlash. “In the end it would almost certainly mean the end of the North Korean regime,” said Ballbach.
It would therefore be a war that North Korea cannot win and would therefore be incompatible with the primary goal of the North’s political system: preserving the Kims’ rule.
This speaks against the thesis of the Americans Hecker and Carlin, says the Berlin expert. Now that Pyongyang has begun selling weapons and ammunition to Russia on a large scale, a war with the South would be rather inconvenient.
Partnership with China and Russia
But the conflict can also escalate unintentionally because there is no longer any direct contact between the opposing sides. “Above all, the risks of unwanted escalation increase if the communication channels for emergencies are missing,” fears Ballbach.
Added to this is the new geopolitical situation since Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Today, North Korea is no longer so dependent on the West. Russia and China have rediscovered North Korea as a strategic partner. This gave Kim Jong Un room for maneuver. Nobody can predict with certainty how he will use it.