analysis
War in Ukraine
Kiev throws its best troops into battle – they still hold off the Russian onslaught
Ukrainian D-30 howitzer fires at Russian positions.
© Efrem Lukatsky / DPA
Putin is going “all in”, the Russians are pressing on the entire front. The Ukrainians were still able to stop the opponent and throw them back at key points. The question remains: How many reserves does the high command in Kiev have left?
After the fall of Avdiivka, the Russians went on the offensive. Ukraine, in turn, launched counterattacks there and also at Robotyne, with which the enemy was able to be stopped and thrown back. At Avdiivka, the Russians were actually already in the process of completely conquering the towns of Berdykhi, Orlivka and Tonen’ke before the new commander in chief of Ukraine ordered a counterattack that pushed the enemy back to the edges of the bombed towns. The maneuvers are essential: If Berdychi were lost, the Ukrainians would have to give up their second line of defense and switch to a third, better-located one – only some of these rear positions have not yet been completed, the Washington Post reports. Sometimes they consist solely of trenches, without the necessary bunkers and shelters. Ukraine not only needs more ammunition, it also needs more time.
Attrition of elite troops
This is also why the 47th Brigade was deployed in the Avdiivka area. An elite formation equipped with US Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and the US M1 Abrams heavy battle tank. Such units are among the best available to Kiev. The question remains whether the counterattacks will be enough to break the Russian tide – or whether they will only delay the Russian advance for a few days. Both sides suffer heavy losses in the fighting, but who can bring in fresh forces as a result?
In a few days, the 47th lost two valuable M1 Abrams-based mine clearing tanks, as well as three M1 Abrams main battle tanks. The Russians are using FPV drones equipped with a rocket-propelled grenade warhead against them. This is a significant improvement compared to the summer of 2023, when explosive charges were mostly used, which can immobilize a tank and render it helpless, but generally do not penetrate the combat area. Both Russians and Ukrainians are covering their vehicles with reactive armor to “blow down” the drones. In principle, the protection is effective for single hits, but it is canceled out by the sheer number of drones.
Russians shift their attacks
While the fronts near Robotyne and Avdiivka are currently showing little movement, the Russians have shifted their focus of attack in Donbass to the area east of Donetsk and are achieving success there. Near Nowomykhailivka they have captured a farm to the south and will advance from there into the center of the town. North of there they were able to improve their position at Pobjeda. A few kilometers further, they managed to drive the Ukrainian defenders of Heorhiivka out of the reservoir area and establish themselves on the outskirts of the town. At Marjinka the positions on the southern edge of Krasnogorowka were taken, and the important railway line is also said to have been crossed there. About four kilometers further they advance into Pervomais’ke. At Bakhmut they advance into the center of Ivanivske and continue to attack the Ukrainian positions in Chassiv Yar with artillery and bombs.
This list not only sounds depressing, it also shows the Russian strategy. Due to their numerical superiority, the invaders can open up further “hot” combat zones. Ukraine’s forces are already strained, and it is becoming increasingly difficult for them to send fire brigade units like the 47th into combat – which will stabilize the situation, but not defuse it. Especially since it is feared that once these troops have been deployed, they will no longer be able to be withdrawn from the fighting. The Russian plan aims to tie up all of Kiev’s forces and sooner or later achieve a breakthrough that the Ukrainian high command can no longer seal off due to a lack of fresh troops.
Russians dominate the airspace
Ukraine has the problem that the troops on the ground fight bravely but are only supported by drones. And even in the area of small drones they are not superior; the Russians dominate low and high airspace. The Ukrainian air defense is so weakened that the Russians can deploy their fighter jets almost immediately to the front. The defense units face drones, artillery and heavy glide bombs. What’s even more serious than the tank losses is that the Russians are eliminating the Ukrainians’ remaining supporting artillery.
Currently, Russian firepower is overwhelming. And gone are the days when the Russians had to plow a field with hundreds of shells to score a hit. The gliding bombs have long since hit more precisely than they did a year ago, and Kiev doesn’t know the answer. The tide has also turned due to smaller improvements: the Russians now have grenades available for the 122 millimeter steep-fire mortars, which achieve four kilometers more range and hit more accurately.
Danger of a breakthrough
And so we see fights that turn out to be extraordinarily brutal. Both sides are shooting prisoners, as has happened before – except that videos of the atrocities are now being shared on official channels. If you’re looking for a glimmer of hope, despite all the pressure, Kiev is also achieving success. The Russian Air Force is said to have suffered noticeable losses during its offensive, although there is no confirmation of most of the kills. Once again the Ukrainian Magura sea drones managed to sink a Russian corvette. The swarm attacks by water drones are a disaster for the Russian Navy. But that doesn’t keep the front on the ground.
Austrian Colonel Reisner warns: “The danger of a Russian breakthrough is massive.” He sees a domino effect. Kiev’s other defense lines are not fully developed due to the lack of budget; in the event of a withdrawal, they would have to be held by the retreating troops. If the plan fails, entire sections of the front could collapse and only recover far back on the Dnipro. The river divides Ukraine. If the Russian troops reach the eastern bank, Putin will likely have achieved his territorial war goals with the exception of Odessa.