War in Ukraine
Kiev crosses the Dnieper and Moscow cuts off Avdiivka – a race against time
A Ukrainian soldier in an improvised trench.
© Kostya Liberov/Libkos/Getty Images
The summer offensive is over, the fighting continues. Both sides are looking for success this year. The Russians are trying to conquer the fortress city of Avdiivka and Kiev wants to liberate the eastern bank of the Dnieper.
The world is watching the Gaza Strip, but fighting is also continuing in Ukraine. Moscow and Kyiv Both are looking for a decision before winter, even the beginning of the mud season doesn’t stop them. Russia is trying to take the city of Avdiivka and the Ukrainians want to cross the Dnieper on a broad front.
The Ukrainian summer offensive is over, with modest success. That was heard everywhere, but it’s not entirely true. To the south of Bakhmut and especially in the Robotyne area, i.e. the places of their deepest breakthroughs, the Ukrainian armed forces continue to try to improve their position. In addition, they have opened another front, in Kherson along the Dnieper. Individual commandos were set across the river in the summer, then a bridgehead was built at the Antonivka Bridge and now there are four in total. They are spread over about 30 kilometers of river banks.
So far, the Russians have not been able to drive the Ukrainians from the eastern bank. This is also due to geography. On the eastern bank of this area there is a narrow strip of settlements, at least partially adjoined by marshland. Humid, wooded and without buildings. This strip ends in the north at the Russian-occupied town of Nowa Kakhowka. Once the Ukrainians have gained a foothold in the “solid” built-up strip, the Russians can hardly attack them, except in small groups. Additionally, they are unable to effectively block boat traffic across the river.
Basis for the next offensive
This is a clear sign that the Russian drones are being disrupted by the Ukrainians. Kiev’s goals are not so easy to identify. After the failure of most operations in the summer, Kiev could also use a success for PR. The Kherson-Front forces the Russians to relocate units that they then lack elsewhere. There can be strategic success in the future. To do this, the bridgeheads would have to be widened and gain more depth in an easterly direction. So that they can serve as a jumping off point for an offensive.
The Ukrainians are still a long way from that. Simply because transport across the river would then have to be done using bridges and not boats. Despite the operational success, the Ukrainian troops on the eastern bank find themselves in a precarious situation. The Russians systematically destroy the buildings with glide bombs and artillery. Due to the river, the Ukrainian troops move away from the firing positions of their own artillery, but move closer to those of the Russian invaders. A deadly imbalance.
Print on the whole front
While the Ukrainians are attacking on the riverbank, the Russians have also launched attacks in many places along the front. Their goal is to regain positions that they lost over the summer. The large number of attack points is intended to saturate the Ukrainian front, keep the Ukrainians so busy that they cannot move troops to the front and tie up their reserves. The focus of the Russian attacks is the city Avdiivka.
The Russians have been trying to cordon off the city since the beginning of October. In some cases they suffered huge losses. But that doesn’t clear up the situation for the defenders; the Russians continue to advance, albeit in slow motion. Even after weeks, they had not managed to take the places Stepove in the north and Sjeverne in the south, which were important for an encirclement. There was already fighting in both places, but the Russians had to retreat.
But that is no reason to calm down; all attempts by the Ukrainians to push back the Russians were also unsuccessful. In fact, they were able to improve their positions. At Stepove in particular, one can expect that the Russians will first try to take the heights north of the settlement.
Despite the laborious and costly approach, the Russians fundamentally have an advantage. Even if Kiev manages to conquer the heights west of Robotyne or widen the bridgeheads on the Dnieper, nothing further will follow. Russia On the other hand, the city has enclosed Avdiivka on three sides anyway. If the Russian advances to the north and south advance just a few kilometers further, the city and its defenders will be lost.