Chancellor Olaf Scholz had once again given everything for his Social Democrats in Schleswig-Holstein. In the so-called final sprint of the election campaign, he wrote his name in the golden book of the city of Kiel, he spoke to more than a thousand people on the town hall square, worked hard for the SPD’s top candidate Thomas Losse-Müller and, on the occasion, also endured whistles from few dozen opponents of the federal government’s Ukraine policy. Apart from the fact that Scholz returned from Kiel with an invitation to a rowing party on the fjord, his commitment in the far north doesn’t really seem to have paid off.
Possibly even the opposite? The SPD, as it looks on Sunday evening, is not only losing a lot of votes, it is also falling behind the Greens. The Social Democrats are the clear losers of the evening. Is all this only due to national political issues and the top candidates? Or does Olaf Scholz in the north fail as chancellor in times of war?
What does the result mean for Olaf Scholz?
Secretary General Kevin Kühnert is the first from the federal party to ask questions this evening. And matching the result, it doesn’t work on ZDF with the sound line at first. Then Kühnert has his say and says frankly that it was not a nice election night for the SPD. There was a lot of support for Daniel Günther as a person. Despite a good campaign, the SPD had “got under the wheels”. Kühnert did not want to see a major national political trend against the SPD – and thus against Chancellor Olaf Scholz. It has been confirmed once again that personalities can ultimately decide the election. In Kiel itself, the comrades are not quite so sure: “It was more about war and peace than about state issues that could have scored points,” says Ralf Stegner, the long-time chairman of the SPD in Schleswig-Holstein.
Prime Minister Daniel Günther’s CDU clearly won the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein. Günther not only stays in office, he has also sent a national political signal with his more than clear success: The Union can still win elections. Recently, not everyone was sure, especially at the base. This is one of the reasons why the party leader of the CDU is now called Friedrich Merz. He was carried into office by a member survey with the great hope of teaching his party how to win again. The Merz era then began at the end of March with a hefty bankruptcy in the state elections in Saarland and the deselection of CDU Prime Minister Tobias Hans. Thanks to Günther’s success in the north, Merz can now take a deep breath for the first time.
The CDU leader congratulated Daniel Günther via Twitter – not without congratulating himself a bit: “An outstanding result for you personally, but also for the entire CDU,” wrote Merz. That gives tailwind for North Rhine-Westphalia.
Carsten Linnemann, Deputy Federal Chairman of the CDU, spoke of a very important success. The North CDU is well above the national trend. “Respect to Daniel Günther,” said Linnemann. People longed for personalities, even when the wind was blowing from the front. Although he does not share every opinion of Daniel Günther, according to Linnemann, who is considered to be economically liberal, on ZDF, he is a personality with strong convictions. Linnemann was clearly reluctant to attribute the success to CDU leader Merz, but pointed out that at least there was no headwind from Berlin.
In the case of the Greens, the good result in Schleswig-Holstein combined with the prospect of even greater gains in North Rhine-Westphalia should also have an impact on the entitlement of the federal government. Some might get the idea that the traffic light no longer consists of one larger and two smaller parties, but that the Greens are now one of the two larger partners. For the FDP, next week it will also be about ensuring that this suspicion is not confirmed.
Greens leader Ricarda Lang said she was “damn proud” of the Greens’ historically best result in Schleswig-Holstein. Long congratulated Daniel Günther, but explained that there were several election winners that evening, including their party. Lang did not want to get involved in the formation of the government in Kiel, her party stands for independence, but also “available for everything”.
Habeck wants a black-green coalition in Kiel in the future
Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck was much clearer, not to say demanding. Habeck, who was Deputy Prime Minister in Kiel for several years before moving to Berlin, greeted his ex-boss with the words: “Daniel, congratulations, well done.” The Prime Minister is certainly smart enough to know who he has to thank for this result, said Habeck – referring to his own party and what they see as the successful work in the Jamaica coalition. Habeck would like to see a black-green coalition in Kiel in the future. If two parties had won, they should govern together, he said on ARD. “The Greens and the CDU, we were bitter enemies,” said Habeck. We overcame that together. And the country benefited from it.
The FDP, the third partner in the previous Jamaica alliance from Kiel, could not benefit from anything. Party leader Christian Lindner tried hard to hide his disappointment. He said: “There were no state elections in Schleswig-Holstein today. There was a Günther election.” Lindner was also able to get some good news from the evening, namely that the AfD is unlikely to be a member of the state parliament anymore. Politicians from other parties also joined in the joy at this news.
AfD federal party leader Tino Chrupalla said quite contritely: “Maybe we have to make it a little more distinguishable from the old parties.” The social issues would not have been so popular in Schleswig-Holstein.
CDU leader Friedrich Merz can use the success from Schleswig-Holstein – he urgently needs success in North Rhine-Westphalia. Not only because it is about power in his home state, but also about the political balance of power in the federal government. In retrospect, the elections in Saarland and Schleswig-Holstein are more likely to be included in the overall political balance sheet for the year as a warm-up program for the main round in the much larger NRW.
This is probably one of the reasons why Merz has not toured through the far north in the past few days, but through the deep west. On Saturday he performed in a boathouse in Wuppertal, in a community center in Bergisch-Gladbach and in a colliery in Ahlen.
However, it is also true that Daniel Günther did not seem to be dependent on the famous tailwind from Berlin at all. In recent polls, he was further ahead of the competition than FC Bayern were ahead of their pitiful playmates in the Bundesliga. It’s hard to believe from today’s perspective: but when Olaf Scholz became chancellor, the SPD was actually still ahead in Schleswig-Holstein. The Social Democrats will therefore probably also consider to what extent the previous performance of their Chancellor could have influenced the result in the north. Above all, Scholz’ communication of his Ukraine policy has been publicly criticized again and again. However, leading Social Democrats did not want to voice any concerns out loud, party leader Saskia Esken instead referred to the Chancellor’s television speech on Sunday evening and praised its clarity.
The CDU will want to give the impression that the tide has now turned
Whether that will be useful in a week’s time, no one knows for the time being. In North Rhine-Westphalia everything points to a head-to-head race. According to the most recent survey by the research group Wahlen, the CDU would come to 30 percent and the SPD to 28 percent. For CDU title defender Hendrik Wüst, there is a real danger that he will win the election and still not remain prime minister if, for example, a traffic light or even a red-green coalition could be formed against him. A little Günther momentum would certainly be good for Wüst.
As vehemently as Merz and his union advocated the thesis after the Saarland defeat that a state election was only a state election, after the election in Schleswig-Holstein they should be trying to give the impression that the wind was blowing in from the north shot all over the republic.
At least an unprecedented run by the SPD has been stopped for the time being. The party, which was declared almost dead by large parts of the public about a year ago and had to be ridiculed for sending a candidate for chancellor at all in 2021, not only lost the chancellor’s office in September with exactly this candidate for chancellor CDU recaptured. On the day of the federal election, she also landed a spectacular victory in the state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and has governed Saarland with an absolute majority since March. There is nowhere else in the Federal Republic. This triumphal march, which was also the triumph of Olaf Scholz, came to a temporary end on Sunday. Whether it is just a stopover or a trend reversal will not be seen in Schleswig-Holstein, but in North Rhine-Westphalia next week.