analysis
War in Ukraine
Ukraine is slowing the Russian advance, but still cannot stop it
Burnt out tank in the Kharkiv region.
© Valentyn Ogirenko / Reuters
The situation near Kharkiv remains serious. President Zelensky fears further offensives. The Russians rely on their massive firepower to crush the defenders.
So far, the Ukrainians have not really been able to stop the Russian advance in either Donbass or Kharkov. The rapid advance of the first days at the beginning of the The Kharkiv offensive came to a standstill, but the Russians are still pushing the defenders back. Positions were lost in a handful of villages. The Russians were able to occupy larger areas in the important cities of Volchansk and Tashasi Yar.
The city of Tashasi Yar, which has been converted into a fortress, is of strategic importance for Ukraine. It shields the last line of defense in Donbass. If Tashazi Yar falls, the Russians can get to the rear of the chain of cities from Slovyansk in the north and Kostiantynivka in the south. With a massive attack, the Russians were able to penetrate the district east of a canal. It is currently unclear whether they can establish themselves there or whether the Ukrainians can throw them out again.
Slow advance near Kharkiv
In Wotschank, the Russians have consolidated their control over the northern part of the city. They have crossed the Vovcha River at least at one point and there are fighting in the southern part of the city. Even more important than Woltschansk is the small town of Lypzy. There were fighting in the northern dacha suburb, the actual location is still held by the Ukraine. Kiev has brought in significant reinforcements in both Volchansk and Lypzy. Lypzy is difficult to defend because there is mostly only light development in the area and because the village can be seen from the northern hills. Kiev will try to hold the place in any case, if Lypzy falls, the Russians have advanced so far that large parts of Kharkiv come into their artillery range and their small drones can operate right up to the outskirts of the city.
In addition to these central locations, the Russians achieved small tactical successes in other places and are also said to have brought the rubble of the village of Robotyne under their control. The place was considered the greatest success that Kiev was able to liberate in the failed summer offensive of 2023. The recapture by the Russians would have primarily psychological significance.
Battles of attrition near Kharkiv
The fighting in the north of Kharkiv is developing into the battles of attrition familiar from the Donbass. Although the word “wear and tear” sounds factual, the ancient terms “meat grinder” or “blood mill” better describe the character of the fighting. This means that gaining terrain is of secondary importance; the primary goal is to inflict losses on the enemy. The Ukrainians can still keep up in the area of drone warfare, but in air strikes and artillery they can only muster a fraction of the Russian firepower. The Russians are doing everything they can to keep it that way. At Kharkiv, artillery brought in as reinforcements is their primary target. Their drones try to spot guns as they approach in order to destroy them as soon as they arrive in the combat area.
In a first interview since the beginning of the Kharkiv offensive, President Zelenskyy told the AFP news agency that the situation in the Kharkiv region had been “controlled” but “not stabilized.”
“I’m not saying it’s a big success for Russia, but we have to be sober and understand that they are encroaching deeper into our territory.”
He fears that this could only be the “first wave” of a larger offensive and admitted problems with the team strength and “morale” in the troops. “We need to replenish the reserves… A large number of brigades are empty.”
Inadequate fastenings
North of Kharkiv, the Russians are said to have only a few troops in combat, and the Ukrainians are said to be numerically superior. Whether they can hold off the Russians permanently depends on whether their fortifications are expanded. There are no fortifications directly on the border. Videos of unfinished fortifications are circulating online, as well as shots of ridiculously small dragon’s teeth. The Russians take great pleasure in showing captured and demoralized Ukrainians with statements like this: “The defense of the Kharkiv region is zero, it simply does not exist. The conditions were inadequate, there were no firing positions, no shelters, there was nothing.”
It is too late to establish new positions. The FPV drones operate approximately 15 kilometers behind the contact line. In this zone it is now impossible to use excavators and cement mixers; digging there can only be carried out secretly by hand. Near Kharkiv, the Russians have used new drones for the first time that illuminate targets with a laser. If this happens, the Ukrainian vehicles or positions will be taken out very precisely by Krasnopol shells.
President Zelensky’s regular term of office ends on May 20, and elections have been suspended, as provided for by the constitution. Russian bloggers expect heavy air strikes on this symbolic date.