It has been less than four months since Imran Khan was ousted from his post as Prime Minister of Pakistan. Now the former cricket star appears to be making a comeback in a bid to put himself in a good position for the upcoming elections. Last week, Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party won 15 out of 20 seats in Punjab, Pakistan’s largest state. The election was held by court order to replace MPs who left Khan’s party when he was ousted in April. Now these have been replaced by Khan allegiance and the ruling coalition is in turmoil.
The Punjab is not only the most important political and economic region of Pakistan, but also the stronghold of the current Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. For him, the election result was a heavy blow in two respects. It can be seen as a rejection of the ruling family clan – while Imran Khan is bringing himself back into the conversation for the highest office. He has been able to do this for weeks at rallies across the country when he railed against the political elite. In 2018, Khan positioned himself as an independent force between the two family clans that have ruled Pakistan for decades: the Bhuttos and the Sharifs. Apart from two periods when the military seized power, the Bhuttos have been involved in various governments since 1971, while the Sharif family has had a say in Pakistan’s fortunes since 1981.
Nawaz Sharif was Prime Minister three times between 1990 and 2017. During this period, Shehbaz Sharif was Chief Minister of Punjab. After Nawaz was overthrown in a military coup in 1999, the family went into exile in Saudi Arabia and returned in 2007. While Nawaz Sharif is seen as the one who can move the masses and win over voters, Shehbaz Sharif is seen more as a pragmatist and organizer, which is currently helping him to lead the governing coalition and keep the military balanced. In 2017, the family was involved in the “Pandora Papers” scandal, investigative research in which the SZ was also involved and which proved that the Sharifs parked their assets in offshore accounts.
Imran Khan was Vladimir Putin’s first state guest after the attack on Ukraine
After Shehbaz Sharif replaced Imran Khan in April, he initiated a softer course in foreign policy. He swung from Khan’s anti-Western line to a more pro-American course. Imran Khan was Vladimir Putin’s first state guest after Russia launched a war of aggression against Ukraine. Khan struggled to prop up the collapsing economy and clung to power, risking a constitutional crisis and boasting bizarre conspiracy theories against the US.
In terms of governing, Khan had been rather unlucky from 2018 to 2022. He couldn’t stem the corruption, and the economy collapsed. In order to stay in power, he had lowered the cost of fuel and food, which is now making negotiations with the International Monetary Fund more difficult. Record inflation is currently driving up food prices in the country, global warming with its effects typical of the region – droughts and floods – is affecting Pakistan. And of course the rising energy prices. Millions of already poor Pakistanis are at risk of falling. “Our economy is in very bad shape and the political uncertainty will make our problems worse,” Ayaz Amir, a former army officer and MP, told national news channel Dunya News.
Currently, a shaky coalition of many parties wants to lead Pakistan out of a severe economic crisis. So while Sharif’s new government tries to reverse Khan’s policies and has to make unpopular decisions in the process, Khan benefits from being an outside critic. Since his ouster, Imran Khan has increased his support in the cities, where he holds rallies to call for new elections. In a televised speech, he warned against vote-buying and called on his supporters to protest against any form of fraud. He reiterated his accusations against an American conspiracy to bring “slavery” and an “imported government” to Pakistan, something that US officials have been irritated to deny for months.
But regardless of how Khan and Sharif are viewed by voters when new elections are expected to take place in October, in the end it’s all about who has the military on their side. No prime minister has served a full term in Pakistan since independence in 1947. The military was always in power. The generals had backed the then opposition leader Imran Khan in 2017 and initiated his case in April. Without the generals, neither Sharif nor Khan will be able to lead the country out of the crisis. But maybe not with the military either.