Kachowka dam destruction: Much speaks for “inside job”, little for rocket attack

Ukraine war
How was the Kachowka Dam destroyed? Much speaks for “inside job”, little for rocket attack

Who is responsible for the dam disaster on the Dnipro? And what exactly happened? Experts are certain that a rocket attack could not have caused this damage. A blast from the inside is more likely.

The Soviet Union demonstrated what it takes at least to destroy the mighty Kachowka Dam 82 years ago: around 20 tons of explosives. With this amount, secret service agents of the NKDW had blown up the building in August 1941 to prevent the Wehrmacht from advancing. Two years later, when they retreated, it was the German occupiers who blew up the dam again. Now there is war in the region again and again the dam was so badly damaged that the entire area on the Dnipro River was flooded.

Four experts on dam failure reasons

It is still unclear who is behind the destruction with all the unforeseeable consequences for people and the environment. However, experts are certain that the explosion(s) was(were) no accidents – and that the effort required points towards Russia as the culprit.

In an interview with the Ukrainian news site Textysaid Mykola Kalinin, chief engineer at dam operator Ukrhydroproject:

“The Kakhovka power plant was designed and built to withstand a nuclear strike. Therefore, any talk that it could somehow collapse by itself is pointless. Five gates through which the water flows were destroyed. Apparently, there were several explosions at the same time , most likely the dam itself was partially destroyed.The power station building must also have been mined.

The building can withstand an attack from the outside, but not from the inside – if you place the explosives correctly. To do this, you must have control of the dam. And who had it? The Russians.

The fact that the power plant building itself was blown up indicates that the Russians wanted to destroy not just the dam but the entire power plant.

Some believe that the dam burst on its own because no powerful explosion was heard. But that’s not surprising, because all these mines must have been placed inside, i.e. below the water level.”

Explosives expert Nick Glumac from the University of Illinois in the USA, told the New York Times:

Although there is little evidence of the dynamics of the explosion, an internal explosion is the most likely explanation: it would cause the most damage. However, this would require hundreds of kilograms of explosives. An external detonation, such as from a bomb or missile, could not have caused this level of destruction. “The explosive power of a warhead is limited, even a direct hit could not destroy the dam.”

Gustav Gressel is a security expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations and is looking into the incident on Deutschlandfunk from a military perspective.

“The dam was under the control of the Russian troops and there were reports as early as October that the dam was being prepared for blasting. The structure is one of the most massive in Europe, and it takes a significant amount of explosives. And to carry out a blast, “You have to get inside the building yourself, it’s not something you can do in five minutes with a special ops. That suggests Russian authorship.”

Also in the “New York Times” Gregory Baecher, professor of civil engineering at the University of Maryland, deals with the thesis that the dam broke by itself.

“Burning dams is possible. But when I looked at the destruction (of the Kachowka dam, ed.), I thought to myself: That looks suspicious.” The Ukrainian missile that hit the dam in August, as well as the Russian retreat across the Dnipro River in November, damaged parts of the road on the dam crest. Apparently the Russians had recently released little water and the level was unusually high due to the snowmelt. “Some dams have already failed under the stress of such water masses, but usually the structure begins to fail in such traps at near-surface or bank sections.”