In the nearly year-long game of poker, now is the time to show your cards. In Georgia, from the lands of Martin Luther King and John Lewis, Joe Biden has delivered a strong plea for two sweeping reforms that aim to protect the voting rights of minorities. In Atlanta, Kamala Harris at his side, he called on elected officials to pass in force via a so-called “nuclear” option: to change the rules of the Senate to have these texts adopted by a simple majority (50 votes + Kamala Harris) instead of 60 usually required. A handful of recalcitrant Democrats, including Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, still have to be convinced by Monday. On pain of suffering a second major failure in less than a month.
According to Joe Biden, it is a question of “protecting democracy”, a year after the attack on the Capitol. Since then, in the name of a fight against fraud which is nevertheless almost non-existent, around twenty republican states have adopted rules toughening access to the ballot box. They have limited postal voting, which is very Democrat-friendly in 2020, or require photo ID to vote. A measure deemed discriminatory, while the United States does not have a national identity card system. According to an estimate from 2006, three times more black voters than white voters do not have such a valid document (25% against 8%),
Kill the “filibuster”, a double-edged sword
“Each member of the Senate will be judged by history on their position before the vote and after the vote,” Joe Biden thundered. Which is implicitly addressing Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, both of whom have expressed doubts about a forced passage.
Traditionally, the “filibuster” allowed elected officials to filibuster with a long speech for any law, except those relating to the budget. But now, a simple threat is enough. And in a Congress more polarized than ever, getting to 60 votes now seems almost impossible. Despite everything, Manchin and Sinema, Democrats elected in Trumpian lands in West Virginia and Arizona, see this rule as a guarantee of the search for compromise. And, they warned, touching it, even just for these electoral reforms, would be particularly risky.
If the Republicans regain a majority in the miderms of November, they could retaliate and rush through this door ajar. For example, to pass a national law requiring photo identification. The Democrats had already touched the filibuster in 2013 for the confirmation of the federal judges chosen by Barack Obama in the Senate. Under Donald Trump, Republicans had gone further by doing the same for Supreme Court justices.
Who’s bluffing in this liar poker game? We should be fixed very quickly: the boss of the Democratic majority in the Senate, Chuck Schumer, has promised a vote by Monday.