MP Shigeru Ishiba from Japan’s conservative governing LDP party is not worried about the opposition. The former Defense Secretary has been in the House of Commons since 1986 and has seen the times when the other factions were actually strong. That was long ago.
Currently, even the centrist CDP, as the second strongest force with its 97 seats, is hopelessly defeated by the LDP (260 seats) and its coalition partner Komeito (32).
In the session that begins this Monday in Tokyo’s Nagatacho government district, opposing MPs can rant as much as they want about the next record budget or Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government’s new security strategy – they won’t change a thing. “We can get what we want,” says Ishiba, 65.
A turning point is easier announced than realized
But that doesn’t mean the dispute over the biggest shift in Japan’s security policy since 1945 is settled. Who exactly will pay them? Many in the LDP have a different opinion on this than Prime Minister Kishida. And Shigeru Ishiba senses that the people in the island state are faced with too many unanswered questions when it comes to security. “Public understanding is still lacking,” he says.
A turning point is easier announced than implemented. And that’s what Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is feeling right now. In December he announced a cabinet decision that must have sounded like the fulfillment of a long-cherished dream for the strong nationalists in the country: Japan will double its defense budget from one to two percent of gross domestic product by 2027. Fresh billions will be free for rockets, which the national self-defense forces never had.
And the security strategy has recently included the principle of so-called counterstrike capability, the ability to fire on an enemy’s missile positions when the enemy is about to attack. Suddenly Japan seems like a nation that can do something for its own defense in the future, despite its pacifist constitution and dependence on the USA.
But now it’s about making the strategy a reality. And at the moment it is not even clear whether Kishida will be allowed to remain prime minister for much longer.
Funding is the most obvious problem. Because of its huge parliamentary majority, the LDP is practically deciding this issue among itself. The party is split into two camps. On the one hand there is Kishida, who is promoting a “new capitalism” and has managed to get the new security strategy paid for in part with tax increases.
Kishida promotes a “new capitalism”
On the other side are the supporters of the murdered right-wing party idol Shinzo Abe, who introduced the very business-friendly Abenomics program as prime minister in 2013: the Abe supporters are against tax increases and continue to rely on the sale of government bonds to the bank, following the old Abenomics custom of Japan, which is officially a means of monetary policy, but ultimately helps with state financing.
MP Ishiba looks at this dispute from a safe distance. Of course he’s an LDP insider, even one particularly popular among the grassroots. In the sparsely populated Tottori 1 constituency, he defends his seat in parliament with enormous support in every election; In 2021 he had 84.1 percent of the votes.
But he has his own little faction in the LDP, and his own ambition. He never liked Abe’s right-wing populism, twice, in 2012 and 2018, he ran against him in the election for the party presidency. And Kishida’s “new capitalism” is too vague for him. “Kishida has never really explained what that is.” He is sober about the future of the prime minister. “There aren’t many people in the LDP who want Kishida to remain at the top in the long term,” he says.
The dismantling within the party has probably long since begun. Otherwise, since Kishida’s cabinet reshuffle in August, four ministers would probably not have had to resign after indiscretions. A group in the party was upset that Kishida was looking for an alternative to the convenient Abenomics strategy. There was open criticism of the boss. And Ishiba joins in: Most recently, he expressly agreed with former prime minister and Abe friend Yoshihide Suga after he said that Kishida should have given up his faction leadership as prime minister.
Stability would now be important for Japan because the challenges are great. Inflation, record levels of debt, aging – and the turning point in security policy. But issues are not really the issue when the LDP establishment reflects on its leadership. Personnel changes are a tradition here, and Kishida is not a populist like Abe, who made his party feel good from 2012 to 2020 with careless debt policies and Japan First enthusiasm.
The right in the LDP lacks a clear alternative to Kishida
“The thinking behind it is simple,” says Ishiba. “Can you win the election with Kishida-san? If not, you need a change.” He himself finds it too cheap to blame possible election defeats on the prime minister. “But that’s the way it’s done.” He believes: “The general mood is that Kishida should be allowed to do his hometown of Hiroshima at least until the G7 summit in May.”
And then away with him? If internal pressure gets too great, Kishida could basically dissolve parliament and call new elections at any time. But then who comes? The LDP right has been struggling for direction since Abe’s death in July 2022. You lack a clear candidate. All of the intra-party groups that Abe led remain leaderless. Is this a new chance for Shigeru Ishiba? “Not entirely out of the question,” he says, smiling.
The Treasury Department in Tokyo says that “about three-quarters” of the additional defense spending could be brought in “through various means”: redistribution of government spending, accounting surpluses or a special fund from non-tax revenues. The ruling party decided to “cover the remaining quarter through corporate taxes, income taxes and tobacco taxes”. Taxes are expected to increase “over several years until 2027”.
At Ishiba, that doesn’t sound so clear. He also believes that the rebellion against tax increases will ultimately fizzle out. But: “The important thing is that the sum of the tax increase must be as small as possible.” He is in favor of taxing corporations rather than individuals – which is why he thinks a corporate tax is more appropriate than a consumption or income tax. Above all, however, Ishiba believes that there is another topic that needs to be discussed.
The keyword counter-strike capability in the new security strategy is still too vague for him. “What exactly we can get for an ability is not yet clear.” Under what conditions can Japan shoot at an enemy? “And even if we have that capability, how will it affect deterrence?” Shigeru Ishiba has to disappoint the gun friends in his party. There is still a long way to go before Japan can launch missiles itself.