analysis
War in Ukraine
It’s Putin’s turn: This is the significance of the battle for Avdiivka
A Ukrainian soldier walks through the streets of Avdiivka. The city is the scene of fierce fighting between Ukraine and Russia
© Libkos / DPA
The Russians lost about 100 armored vehicles in a few days. They are trying to encircle the city of Avdiivka. If this succeeds, Kiev faces a defeat like in Bakhmut.
It has started to rain in Ukraine, the mud season is descending on the country. This marks the end of the Ukrainian summer offensive. Profits are disappointingly limited. None of the stated goals were achieved. Bakhmut was not surrounded or even liberated. The Ukrainians’ southern attack arm was able to drive the Russians off a ridge there and capture a few villages. The Russian front line south of Vremivka was also crushed. The greatest “success” came in the Mala Tokmachka area. Here could Kiev advance a few kilometers and capture the village of Robotyne. But it was not possible to bring the burglary to fruition and there was no deep advance. In the last few weeks the fighting has noticeably slowed down and the Ukrainians are tending to lose ground. It is unlikely that Kiev will be able to gather forces again for a large-scale offensive.
Putin’s autumn offensive
In this situation, a major operation by Russia has begun. The Russians have been trying to advance in the north of the front for weeks, and their advance there has been just as slow as that of Ukraine. But this week Putin made the opening move for fall and winter. Like everything in this war, the goal is unsurprising. It is the city of Avdiivka, it is located just outside Donetsk and has been held by the Ukrainian armed forces since 2014. It is not a Bakhmut II – Avdiivka is a fortress, it is the most heavily fortified city in Ukraine. Significantly more than 10,000 soldiers are said to be holding the fortress. The city is protected by railway walls, has a center of high-rise buildings dominating the surrounding area, and mines and tunnels as the backbone of defense. The entire area is riddled with ditches.
The map shows the rough outline of the front line.
Heavy losses with limited profits
In the attack, the Russians have large numbers of battle tanks and armored vehicles for the first time this year vehicles moved. And suffered heavy losses in the process, but the columns also show that large numbers of troops are available for this operation. The offensive also exposes wishful thinking on the other side. When it became apparent that Kiev would not be able to achieve a breakthrough to the sea, the success narrative changed. The capture of the area was no longer as important; it was claimed that the Russian defenders would suffer far greater losses than the Ukrainians. Moscow would hold the line, but would soon no longer have any troops available. The Russian attack now suggests the opposite.
City is largely covered
And in fact, Avdiivka Fortress is not invincible. Because the city is located in a front line, it is surrounded by the Russians on two sides, and at least half in the south. There the Russians have reached the villages of Vodyane and Opytne. From the direction of Donetsk, they penetrated the outer defense ring of the city from the suburb of Spartak. The situation is most threatening in the north. There the Russians cut the railway line, approached the villages of Stepove and Berdechi and were able to establish themselves, at least temporarily, on the spoil heap of the chemical factory. The battles for this hill are crucial for the northern section as the height overlooks and dominates the surrounding area.
The gap between Berdechi in the north and Stepove in the south is about twelve kilometers wide. Supplies and reinforcements must be brought through them. The only major road is the O0542, which runs from the chemical factory through Orlivka. Russia’s goal is to close the gap, or narrow it down to about four kilometers, creating a “tactical cauldron” in which they have fire control over the only access road.
The dominant waste dump in the north of the city.
Russian strategy puts pressure on Ukrainian forces in several places. The actual city area is attacked from two directions. The defenders must prevent the Russians from entering the city or taking the dominating rubble hill. At the same time, the Russians are expanding both of their grips. Here the Ukrainians must continue to stop the attacks in the south towards the city of Pervomais’ke and ideally destroy the northern pincer with their own counterattack.
Better equipment
The half-encirclement favors Russian operations, and they are also better positioned than at the beginning of the Battle of Bakhmut. The former inferiority in small combat drones, whether kamikaze models or quadcopters, is over; in the last few months the Russians have been able to achieve a clear superiority here. The Lancet drone’s increased range allows them to carry out precision attacks up to around 70 kilometers behind the front, thus counteracting the range superiority of the Western artillery systems. The Russians are now said to have high-range precision grenades themselves. In addition, glide bombs are now also being used in the heavy types weighing 1,500 kilograms. These bombs completely change combat in built-up cities because they can reduce entire high-rise buildings to rubble.
Setting the course in the next few weeks
The fate of the city will be decided in the next few days and weeks. If the Russians manage to essentially encircle them, Kiev faces another serious defeat – even if the city can be held for months. The Ukrainians can hope that the high losses in armored vehicles will bring the Russian offensive to a halt. So far the Russians are said to have lost around 100 armored vehicles. Despite these losses, they gained some ground relatively quickly, but they will not be able to continue in this manner. Ukraine may also be able to bring together forces that can crush the Russian attack pincers with a counterattack before the Russians manage to expand and fortify their positions. An encirclement of the city would be fatal for Kiev, but a collapse of the offensive would also be a debacle for Moscow. It would show that the Russian military has learned nothing when it comes to the offensive since the attack. So the situation is serious, but the Russian losses and the loss of the previously captured spoil heap give the defenders hope.