This information, revealed by Bloomberg magazine, illustrates the tensions between the Hebrew state and Moscow, sponsor of the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad.
Since the IDF offensive against the Gaza Strip launched after the unprecedented attack by Hamas against the Jewish state on October 7, relations between Russia and Israel, already tense, are rapidly deteriorating. In the background, the alliance between Moscow and Iran – sworn enemy of the Israelis – which is strengthening month after month, particularly in terms of military cooperation, against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine.
A latest example of this Russian-Israeli cooling concerns Syria, whose government led by Bashar al-Assad has depended for its security on its two Iranian and Russian sponsors since the civil war of 2011. According to Bloomberg, the Israelis are no longer warning systematically the Russians of their strikes in Syria, while this modus operandi had been in force since 2018. “This is a key change in Israeli policy“, explains the American magazine, which quotes “people close to the case“.
Deconfliction
In Syria, Russia has a naval base in Tartous in the northwest of the country, and an air base in Hmeimim further to the east. It deploys powerful radars there, as well as long-range S400 and S300-PMU2 anti-aircraft systems. But, since the deployment of Russian forces on the ground in Syria in 2015 to support Bashar al-Assad in the face of the rebellion and to avoid any risk of escalation with Israel, Moscow and Tel Aviv have put in place a deconfliction mechanism: d On the one hand, Israel warns Russia of its strikes; on the other, Russia does not intercept Israeli planes or missiles.
This coordination was made necessary by the presence in Syria of Hezbollah fighters and more broadly Shiite militias, engaged alongside the Syrian army, but who represent a threat to Israel on its common border with Syria. Lebanese Hezbollah and Iranian-backed forces are indeed part of “the axis of resistance» self-proclaimed who opposes the policies and the very existence of the Jewish state, which has occupied the Golan Heights – legally still an integral part of Syria – since its victory in the Six-Day War in 1967.
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“In 2018, Vladimir Putin assured Benjamin Netanyahu that he would do everything to prevent Iran and Hezbollah from gaining a foothold in southwest Syria.», recalls Bloomberg. Since then, Israeli F-15, F-16 and F-35 fighters have carried out very regular strikes in Syria, targeting in particular arms transfers from Iran to its “proxies” In the region. The AFP lists “several hundred” since 2011.
This is particularly the case since the Hamas attack on October 7, which cost the lives of more than 1,400 people in Israel and led to the taking hostage of 200 others. On October 22, the airports of Damascus and Aleppo were thus placed “out of service“, according to Syrian state media. On October 27, new strikes again targeted Aleppo airport, but also Syrian positions in the southern province of Deraa to the east of the Golan, from where shots had been launched towards Israel, the Hebrew State justified itself. The Syrian Defense Ministry acknowledged the deaths of eight of its soldiers in this attack. Again on October 30, Israeli strikes against targets in Syria, again towards Daraa, in response to rocket fire. “Israel did not inform Russia in advance of these strikes», Specified Bloomberg, which refers to the presence of Iranian officers and soldiers in Daraa, as well as members of the Russian military police, officially deployed in the country since 2015.
Risk of escalation
The Israeli authorities have not reacted officially to this lack of warning, the Minister of Defense, Yoav Gallant, having only explained Tuesday during a press conference that “we will not allow the establishment of a new Hezbollah front there nor an Iranian military presence in Syria“. The risk is indeed of regional escalation in the region, while Hezbollah is already firing rockets into northern Israel since the attack on October 7, and that the Hebrew state is retaliating in the south of Lebanon. A new front on the Syrian-Israeli border, where pro-Iranian fighters are present, would be a new milestone, very risky for regional security. “The spillover in Syria is not only a risk; it has already startedGeir Pedersen, the United Nations special envoy for the country, said this week, quoted by Bloomberg. Fuel is added to a powder magazine which was already starting to ignite.»
This Friday, in a highly anticipated television interview, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said that the prospect of a “total war was realistic” and “all options» were on the table. For the moment, the escalation is only rhetorical because the Shiite leader has mainly refrained from declaring war on the Jewish state. In reality, none of the major players in the region, including Iran, have any interest in going too far. But the risk exists, all the more so if the end of the deconfliction procedures between Israel and Russia were confirmed, which would mechanically increase the risk of an accident between the two powers.
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For the Jewish State, the political balance with Moscow no longer holds, especially since the Russians welcomed in Moscow last week a Hamas delegation, led by Musa Abu Marzouk, and the Iranian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs , Ali Bagheri, at the invitation of his Russian counterpart, Mikhail Bogdanov, who also met them, according to the Iranian press. Furthermore, on October 28, in the Muslim Russian province of Dagestan, a crowd attacked a plane coming from Tel Aviv, further increasing the concern of the Jewish state, while the Russians, for their part, cleared by accusing the action of foreign secret services, including those of Ukraine.