“Independence Day” is coming up in Israel at the beginning of next week, commemorating the founding of the state 76 years ago. There is little reason to celebrate in the midst of the Gaza war, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already set the serious tone by comparing the situation in 1948 and today.
This can be seen as a direct response to US President Joe Biden’s threat to stop arms aid if Israel storms Rafah, and the short version is: If Israel has to wage war alone, it will. To demonstrate his determination, Netanyahu added: “If we have to, we will fight with our fingernails.”
Netanyahu portrays the war in Gaza as a fight for survival
Israel alone against the rest of the world – for many in the country this may be a frightening idea. But for Netanyahu it is the perfect formula to rally his supporters again. He uses the myth of the Revolutionary War as a template. “We were few against many, we had no weapons, there was even an arms embargo against Israel,” he explained in a video message – and everyone knows how it turned out: “We won.”
Since Hamas’ terrorist attack on October 7, Netanyahu has portrayed the war for Gaza as a fight for survival. Of course he knows that, despite all the hardships, the Jewish state will be in a completely different position in 2024 than it was in the year it was founded. Israel is a nuclear power, and the USA, despite all current disputes, is keeping its political and military protective shield wide open.
By invoking the “alone against all” myth, Netanyahu is now playing a transparent political game. At the same time, however, it is fueling the danger that Israel will actually alienate its allies and become increasingly isolated – and the Jewish state, beyond all the rhetoric, cannot afford that.
Fighter jets and bombs mostly come from the USA
Here are a few numbers: Since 1948, no country in the world has received as much military aid from the USA as Israel. To date, that adds up to around $130 billion. An annual transfer of $3.8 billion is currently set for 2028. But since October 7, American transport planes have been bringing weapons and ammunition into the country in a steady flow. In April, the US Congress released another $14 billion for Israel in one fell swoop. The Israeli Air Force is particularly dependent on American help. The F-15, F-16 and F-35 fighter jets are supplied by the United States, as are a significant portion of the bombs dropped on Gaza.
Biden’s threat may now be intended solely as a verbal warning shot. But it contains a message that is likely to have an impact not only in Israel. An echo could come from two completely opposite directions: from Israel’s other allies, and from Israel’s enemies.
A kind of domino effect could begin in the allies’ camp. Canada, Spain and Italy have already suspended arms deliveries in view of Israel’s warfare in Gaza. This question could now also be asked more loudly in Germany, with its special responsibility for Israel’s security. Germany is in second place on the list of supplier countries behind the USA. In 2023, because of the war, arms exports to Israel shot up to 326.5 million euros, ten times more than in the previous year.
Will Israel’s military soon have to save ammunition?
In Israel, after Biden’s threat, not only politicians are defiant and calm, but also the military. “We have what we need for the planned operations and also for the operations in Rafah,” said army spokesman Daniel Hagari. However, under the protection of anonymity, the Israeli media also quotes voices from the security apparatus that point out that it may soon become necessary to use ammunition more sparingly. Above all, however, there is a warning about effects on other fronts.
Because Israel’s enemies will now also be watching closely to see whether the Jewish state will only drift politically into the sidelines because of Netanyahu’s course or will ultimately be weakened militarily. This could lead the regime in Tehran or the Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon to challenge Israel even more openly.
There was already a bitter foretaste of this in mid-April with Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel with more than 3,000 rockets, drones and cruise missiles. This attack was repelled largely with the help of the USA. It became clear to everyone how urgently Israel needs allies. But now the head of government of all people seems to have forgotten that again.