The Russian authorities are trying to blame Ukraine for the attack. But it is precisely the war of aggression against the country that has led to other dangers and their causes being neglected.
The perpetrators were still shooting in the “Crocus Hall” on the outskirts of Moscow, when Ukraine was already identified as the perpetrator on social networks. There was also speculation about a terrorist act under Putin’s “false flag” in order to justify a new mobilization that was already underway for the war against Ukraine.
After the terrorist organization “Islamic State” (IS) claimed responsibility for the crime and there are indications of perpetrators from Tajikistan, the domestic intelligence service FSB speaks of connections to Ukraine – even if the government in Kiev and the USA vehemently reject this.
Disadvantage Muslim peoples
There is some evidence to suggest that Putin’s circle of power has lost focus on the danger of Islamist terrorism due to the war against Ukraine and the repression of the opposition. On March 19, Putin rejected a warning from the USA about a scenario like the attack on Friday evening. He accused the US government of an “attempt to intimidate and destabilize” the Russian population.
At the beginning of March, FSB special forces killed six men in the North Caucasus republic of Ingushetia. The clashes in the town of Karabulak lasted for several hours. According to Russian authorities, those killed were IS members who were said to have been involved in several “terrorist crimes,” including an attack on a police station in March 2023.
Things have never been completely quiet in the Muslim-dominated North Caucasus in recent years. The invasion of Ukraine, however, provided fodder for renewed anger. There were protests against mobilization for the war against Ukraine in several of the North Caucasus republics. In September 2022, protesters in Dagestan were violently dispersed. The reason: An above-average number of men were drafted from these and other regions far away from the metropolises, and the families therefore had to mourn many casualties.
Although Putin is trying to calm the soldiers and their families with financial means, the economic situation is actually improving for many there. But the narrative of a Russia that is superior to other peoples because of its Slavic history and Christian values is not compatible with the narrative of Russia as a multi-ethnic state. This makes the other ethnic groups feel even more like second-class citizens.
Radicalization in Russia
This applies even more to those from the South Caucasus and Central Asia, millions of whom hire themselves out as cheap workers in Russia. The once coveted Russian passport now becomes a trap when men are drafted into the military. In recent years, their precarious situation has led to the radicalization of young men from Tajikistan and other Central Asian states, especially in Russian metropolises such as Moscow. They were then recruited as fighters for IS and, for example, went to Syria and Iraq as fighters.
A striking number of nationals from Tajikistan are being recruited for IS and its currently strongest offshoot, “Khorasan Province”. The country is characterized by strong population growth. 52 percent of the population is younger than 25 years. But the state, which has been led by Emomalij Rahmon since 1994, is unable to offer young people prospects. Instead, Islam is kept down with strict rules and violence.
Enemy image of Russia
In addition, there is the 1,360 kilometer long border with its southern neighbor Afghanistan. Since the withdrawal of the USA and its allies in 2021, the ruling Taliban and other terrorist organizations have been trying to gain influence in Tajikistan and beyond – sometimes in competition with each other. Due to the lack of Western presence in the region, Russia increasingly serves as an enemy, also with reference to the Russian military operation on behalf of ruler Bashar al Assad in Syria.
In order to keep the risk of Islamist terrorists infiltrating low, the Russian leadership invested heavily in Tajikistan. For a long time, the Russian armed forces had their strongest foreign presence there. But in the course of the war against Ukraine, forces were withdrawn there too.
Basic distrust
When the FSB now claims that the Tajiks identified as possible perpetrators were in contact with Ukraine, it is encountering fundamental mistrust. This is also a consequence of Putin’s policy towards the Muslim minorities, but also the Russian population. It dates back to 1999, when Putin came to power.
When there is speculation about a terrorist act under a “false flag” in the concert hall, reference is usually made to the start of the Second Chechen War in 1999. This was preceded not only by an attack on Dagestan led by the Chechen terrorist Shamil Basayev, but also by an attack on Dagestan Series of attacks on residential buildings in several cities in Russia. In Ryazan, police officers prevented another explosion when they secured bags of detonators in a basement.
Lack of processing
The then head of the FSB, Nikolai Patrushev, claimed that it was an exercise to train the vigilance of the population and the police. In fact, such exercises are said to have taken place, as the renowned intelligence experts Andrei Soldierov and Irina Borogan later wrote. However, it is widely believed that the FSB was responsible for the attacks. It’s not just that politicians who blamed the FSB died in unclear circumstances. Another reason is that Russian authorities never solved the series of terrorist attacks that killed hundreds of civilians.
The situation is similar with the hostage-taking at Moscow’s Dubrovka Theater in 2002 and at a school in Beslan in the North Caucasus in 2004, which many are reminded of in view of the attack in the concert hall. These and other acts of terrorism were committed by Chechen fighters. But in both cases the high number of victims is also due to the fatal misconduct of the emergency services, including the special units of the FSB. This was never addressed either, on the contrary: those responsible were promoted and honored with medals.
Since Putin also declares all kinds of political opponents at home and abroad to be extremists and speaks about combating terrorism at every opportunity, the focus on the dangers posed by terrorist organizations such as IS is lost.