Will he get a green ticket for the presidential election? MEP Yannick Jadot is one of the five candidates for the environmental nomination for the presidential election. The first round of the primary, open to all environmental supporters, will take place from September 16 to 19. This Sunday, he already faced his competitors during the first debate, organized by France Inter and France Info. “He stood out a little from the others by his calm, very professional tone,” comments Daniel Boy, emeritus research director at Cevipof (Center for Political Research at Sciences Po) and specialist in political ecology in France.
A serenity displayed undoubtedly in connection with the positive signal received this Saturday: an Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for France Info and The Parisian indicated that 69% of EELV sympathizers estimated that he would be the best environmental candidate for the presidential election of 2022. “This result is very strongly correlated with the degree of notoriety of Yannick Jadot. While the other four candidates are for the moment less well known, ”analyzes Simon Persico, professor of political science at Sciences Po Grenoble. The same day, the environmentalist deputy (ex-LREM and close to Nicolas Hulot) Matthieu Orphelin gave him his support, declaring that Yannick Jadot was “the one who today best embodies an open ecology, an ecology which speaks to the greatest number, an ecology that brings people together ”.
The results of the primaries often defy the predictions
The MEP has assets that could make him appear as the natural candidate of his political family. He was the winner of the last primary in 2016, he was head of the Europe-Écologie-Les-Verts list in the 2019 European elections. “Jadot appears to be the most consensual candidate. And according to an Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for franceinfo and The Parisian published Friday, if he was nominated candidate at the end of the environmentalist primary, Yannick Jadot would arrive 4th in the first round of the presidential election with 10 to 11% of voting intentions. This would ensure the party to be reimbursed for campaign costs, ”analyzes Daniel Boy.
Except that political history is populated by leaders who ended up being outsiders. And that the primaries conceal surprises: “In 2011, Nicolas Hulot was beaten by Eva Joly, considered however less legitimate by the general public and the media. Ditto in 2016, where Cécile Duflot was eliminated in the first round. It is often the best-known candidate who loses the primary. I will refrain from the slightest prediction, ”breathes Simon Persico. Another reason for the uncertainty that hangs over the results of the primary, according to Daniel Boy: “The 35,000 to 40,000 people who have registered are not all EELV sympathizers [il y aura aussi des adhérents de Générations, du Mouvement des progressistes, de Génération écologie et de l’Alliance écologiste indépendante]. Suddenly, the participants will have different political positions and it is difficult to know who they will lean towards. In addition, voters can refuse to be imposed a winner by the media ”.
Some Greens have even criticized him for being too “Macron compatible”
It is also difficult to say if some of Yannick Jadot’s competitors will not do well. Regarding the programs of each, the lines do not differ fundamentally, except for Jean-Marc Governatori. “There is no very distinctive ideological marker between Batho, Piolle, Rousseau and Jadot,” observes Simon Persico. Yannick Jadot pleads for a massive investment in the thermal renovation of housing, a heritage tax, reduced VAT for organic or recycled products, the ban on the importation of products contributing to the destruction of biodiversity, the exit of factory farming… Ideas shared by its main competitors.
But it is above all on the political positioning that the candidates stand out. “Jadot represents in a way the right of the Greens, which can be seen in his alliance and communication strategies. Some green activists accuse him of having participated in the police demonstration in May in Paris. And he is not ready to defend an alliance with LFI, his gaze is more towards the PS. While Sandrine Rousseau is positioned more to the left and Eric Piolle represents the barycenter. As for Delphine Batho and Jean-Marc Governatori, they represent more of the environmentalists, ”notes Simon Persico. Some Greens have even criticized him for being too liberal or too “Macron compatible”, which makes him bristle.
Don’t wave in the next few days
Ten days before the first round of the primary, some candidates could rely on their strengths to gain ground. “Eric Piolle has twice won the municipal election in Grenoble, in 2014 and 2020. He has solid networks within the party. And outside, he is supported by actors to the left and to the right of the Greens, such as the ex-LREM deputy, Aurélien Taché. », Estimates Simon Persico. Even Sandrine Rousseau, who looked like an outsider, could surprise: “She has also ensured fairly high visibility in the campaign with strong convictions. It knows how to arouse attention, which can enable it to mobilize voters sensitive to the themes it puts forward, ”he continues.
To consolidate his chances before the primary, the euro deputy “will undoubtedly adopt the strategy of the least risk-taking”, anticipates Simon Persico. Because he knows very well that the train will perhaps not pass twice: “We have the historic opportunity to win the presidential election”, he had also declared on August 31 on TF1 …